A Western witticism goes: if there’s a leak indoors, the easiest fix is to put a fresh coat of paint first. What the WTO’s Director-General is saying is exactly that coat of paint—trade in products related to artificial intelligence is masking the losses caused by tariffs and other disruptions. According to the WTO’s latest data, in the first quarter of 2026, semiconductors and chemical products supported that growth. The trade numbers driven by AI are that layer of paint; what it covers is the contraction of almost all categories except computing power itself. The first place where this paint cracks is semiconductor equipment orders—not end-user consumption. Chinese wisdom is to check the rice bin first, and then see whether the dishes on the table are plentiful. Numbers may look good, but the pot may not actually have much rice. After all, paint is just paint—it can’t truly seal a leaking house. Computing-power orders have a longer cycle than consumption, and they’re also easier to book early: a procurement signed today will be shipped next year, yet it’s already counted as this year’s growth on paper. Equipment payments are one-off, while consumables are needed every day. The market tends to listen to AI as a story—it’s really only a handful of the molecule’s components; the denominator is everyone. If, over the next two quarters, after excluding semiconductors and chemicals, global trade volume turns to positive growth, then it means my judgment is wrong. Scan the QR code below👇 to join the group—we only recognize the line that can translate into physical, real-world goods.

#人工智能 #算力 #Technology