【Resolution Result】
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16 FOMC meeting passed a 25-basis-point rate hike (one increment) by a vote of 12 to 0. The target range for the federal funds rate was raised from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%—the first rate hike since July 2023. The post-meeting statement was only 130 words long, noticeably more concise than past practice. Chairman Warsh (Kevin Warsh) did not submit his own rate-path prediction (dot) this time. The press conference was also unusually brief; the entire meeting plus Q&A lasted only about half an hour, and the time Warsh actually spent answering questions was just about 22 minutes.
【The dot plot is more important than the rate hike itself】
This rate hike was already fully priced into the market; what truly moved the subsequent price action was the quarterly economic forecast summary (SEP) released in parallel. Of the 18 officials, 16 believed another 25-basis-point hike would be needed before year-end, with 4 of them thinking it could require two more hikes. As a result, the December meeting was once again put back on the market’s list of “possible actions.” The dot plot raised its median forecast for the federal funds rate by the end of 2026 to 4.1%, up from the 3.8% expected in June. This corresponds to the market’s view that after this hike, there would still be one more move before year-end. Looking ahead over the following years, there are few signs of additional hikes; instead, the committee is projecting at least one rate cut in both 2028 and 2029.
【Market reaction relatively muted】
After the news was released, $BTC briefly surged to $76,300. As the Waller press conference turned more hawkish, those gains were given back, converging to around $75,700—near the level before the decision was announced. $ETH After fluctuating back and forth in the $2,370–$2,430 range, it ultimately settled near the lower end of the range at about $2,376, also close to the pre-meeting level. Both reactions were rather subdued because this rate hike itself was already fully priced in by the market. After the meeting, the real variables are the dot plot and the tone of the press conference—not the outcome of whether to hike in itself. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year Treasury stayed near a relatively high level of about 4.8%, continually raising the opportunity cost of holding such non-yielding assets—one of the main background factors weighing on the valuation of risk assets this time.
【Key points to watch next】
More than 80% of the officials—16 in total—think there will be another rate hike before year-end, indicating that uncertainty around the December meeting has clearly increased. This differs from the atmosphere of previous meetings, where there was “rough agreement.” This time, Waller intentionally did not submit his own forecast, and the statement’s word count was significantly shortened. The broader market interpretation is that he is deliberately preserving policy flexibility and does not want to lock himself into a specific path in advance. This is analysts’ view, not an official statement. Most analysts think whether Bitcoin can hold the $74,000–$78,200 range that the market is watching in the near term will depend more on the inflation and employment data released ahead of the December meeting than on today’s decision—already settled and in the past.