The Federal Reserve’s rate-hike “shoe” has landed, and yet the crypto market collectively rebounds—this plot is kind of interesting.
BTC is trading in a tight range around $76,000, up a little over 1% in the past 24 hours, but on-chain data doesn’t look great: after 27 straight days of capital inflow, it has stalled for the first time; spot ETF flows have seen net outflows for two consecutive days exceeding $700 million; and BlackRock’s IBIT saw a daily outflow of $144 million. After the options market’s bets on a rise were hit when the Senate failed to pass the CLARITY bill, it has already shifted from calling for upside to buying downside protection. The biggest pain point is pinned at $72,000.....
ETH is even worse: spot ETFs recorded a single-day net outflow of $224 million, while the price has been repeatedly tug-of-warring around $2,400. Signs of institutional withdrawal are clearly visible......
But what’s interesting is that the privacy sector is exploding against the trend—ZEC surged 23% in 24 hours. The direct catalyst is that Matt Huang, co-founder of Paradigm, publicly endorsed Zcash as a “Bitcoin privacy complementary layer,” together with community voting that retains the halving mechanism. Narrative + fundamentals both drive it.
Overall assessment: a technical rebound after macro negatives have played out, but new demand hasn’t caught up yet. Continued ETF outflows suggest institutions are still watching from the sidelines. In the short term, BTC holding $76,000 is key—if it breaks down, look to on-chain support around $71,300. For ETH, it needs to increase volume and hold above $2,430 to open up room for a rebound. $ZEC $龙虾
BTC is trading in a tight range around $76,000, up a little over 1% in the past 24 hours, but on-chain data doesn’t look great: after 27 straight days of capital inflow, it has stalled for the first time; spot ETF flows have seen net outflows for two consecutive days exceeding $700 million; and BlackRock’s IBIT saw a daily outflow of $144 million. After the options market’s bets on a rise were hit when the Senate failed to pass the CLARITY bill, it has already shifted from calling for upside to buying downside protection. The biggest pain point is pinned at $72,000.....
ETH is even worse: spot ETFs recorded a single-day net outflow of $224 million, while the price has been repeatedly tug-of-warring around $2,400. Signs of institutional withdrawal are clearly visible......
But what’s interesting is that the privacy sector is exploding against the trend—ZEC surged 23% in 24 hours. The direct catalyst is that Matt Huang, co-founder of Paradigm, publicly endorsed Zcash as a “Bitcoin privacy complementary layer,” together with community voting that retains the halving mechanism. Narrative + fundamentals both drive it.
Overall assessment: a technical rebound after macro negatives have played out, but new demand hasn’t caught up yet. Continued ETF outflows suggest institutions are still watching from the sidelines. In the short term, BTC holding $76,000 is key—if it breaks down, look to on-chain support around $71,300. For ETH, it needs to increase volume and hold above $2,430 to open up room for a rebound. $ZEC $龙虾