九烨加密论

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九烨加密论

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九烨加密论

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《CLARITY Act》—market hype is over😂

Next, we’ll see what happens with the FOMC meeting. The “other shoe” to drop will be the decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The prices $BTC $ETH $CRCLB have already fallen below the key support of 75.5K and 2410U. After the rate hike is confirmed, another push could determine how far it can go.

Bottom-fishing.

The person most eager to get this bill passed is precisely the reason it didn’t pass. Last night the Senate’s procedural vote was 50:49; the 60-vote threshold wasn’t met, and #CLARITY法案 was frozen.

The only thing Democrats blocked was a single clause: the conflict-of-interest provision—Trump’s family has made more than $1.4 billion from the crypto business, yet the clause couldn’t stop him from continuing to profit.

The industry spent hundreds of millions lobbying, outspending and outmaneuvering Wall Street’s opposition, but it ultimately died because “the people writing the rules don’t want to give up their own business.” The regulatory vacuum will continue to drag on, and next year it’s unlikely to happen.

$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin personal review only; not investment advice

九烨加密论

Next, key event time nodes may all trigger sharp market volatility.

1. CLARITY Bill vote (Crypto Market Structure Bill)
Beijing time: September 16 (Wednesday) at 2:15 AM
Senate procedural vote (cloture). It requires 60 votes to enter the正式 debate; it is not the final passage vote.

2. Circle Arc mainnet official launch date
Beijing time: September 16, 23:30 to September 17, 01:30

According to official statements, the chain opens the public mainnet on September 16. The precise block production time was not separately announced; the event window can be used as a reference. Validators include BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, etc. Gas is paid in USDC.

3. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (market widely expects a 25-basis-point rate hike)
Decision release: Beijing time September 17 (Thursday) at 2:00 AM
Chair Powell press conference: Beijing time September 17 at 2:30 AM

#CLARITY #CircleArc #FOMC议息

BTC-2.14%

ETH-3.73%

九烨加密论

$Immortal fruit fly, what the heck—it’s up tenfold; I’m getting rich.

Its market cap is at the highest around two million. In one night it surged five times. That’s incredible, wow. This magical crypto world—when I was talking about it yesterday, the market cap was only about 200k to 400k.

Bullish

#Clarity法案 #FOMC议息会议

1、Bill fails to pass + FOMC rate hike
2、Bill fails to pass + FOMC no rate hike
3、Bill passes + FOMC rate hike
4、Bill passes + FOMC no rate hike

No matter which scenario, the final result is: $BTC $ETH new high—September is a bottom-fishing month.

The only difference is whether it will consolidate first and then make a new high, or whether it will first move downward to test the limits and then make a new high.

#美联储加息是否已成定局

BTC-2.14%

ETH-3.73%

九烨加密论

$PONS has flown up.

OKX has decided to list spot trading pairs, which suggests that #BSC @CZ getting listed on Binance spot is not far off. The current market cap is about 500 million, which still leaves some room compared to $PUMP with more than 2 billion.

#发射平台

九烨加密论

Bullish

$PONS finally stopped falling; rate-hike expectations have been digested for the most part.

After dropping for 10 days, we finally saw a bottoming signal. Yesterday, a large bullish candle formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The low was $0.49. Most likely, that is the bottom of this leg lower, and the probability of price consolidating and rising from here increases significantly.

It belongs to the #RH chain’s transmitter. The benchmark is $PUMP . A pullback confirmed at 0.60U should be the buying point. And PUMP also showed the same situation at the 60-day moving line—looks like the rate-hike expectations have mostly been digested.

#STONK has just had a big surge. Wait for it to calm down a bit, and watch for the chance at 0.115.

#发射平台币

PONS-7.27%

九烨加密论

$BTC Where is the limit?

The 20-day moving average turns downward. This type of correction cycle will be extended, and the probability that the correction’s depth and range will further push lower will greatly increase. If that’s the case, then I think 70–72K is the extreme correction zone for this round. (Probabilistic)

Don’t worry or be anxious about whether it will go even deeper. In the early stage of a bull market, it comes through amid doubt and controversy. So if you get the chance, grab it decisively.

Use leverage: 70–72K.

#BTC #bitcoin

九烨加密论

Bullish

#比特币金叉后回落至7.7万美元

The BTC golden cross discussed here refers to: the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average.

1. A golden cross of the intermediate- and long-term moving averages marks the end of a bear market, the brewing stage of a bull market, and its early phase. This is true whether in 2020 or 2023. However, after the golden cross, there will instead be a period of #回调 , and it will not immediately start a new major uptrend.

2. Before the golden cross, there is a large wave of price breakouts—breaking through the prior bottom range. After the golden cross, adjustment begins again. There are usually two reference points for the adjustment: MA50 and MA200. The price corresponding to $BTC is 69K/70K. This process is also full of twists and turns.

3. The prices corresponding to the two moving averages above $ETH are 2170/2050U. Even so, although there is a pullback, it does not change the establishment of the uptrend. At this stage, many people will think the price will drop deeper again or even break the previous low. This is probably due to the inherent nature of fear.

4. In this cycle, the exchange rate between #ETH and #BTC has already broken through the key level of 0.0325, and the golden cross mentioned above has also appeared. This is something else. What happens next really depends on ETH. If you don’t have much capital, you can focus your bet on ETH.

BTC-2.14%

九烨加密论

$The immortal fruit fly has doubled—I’m going.

The first time fans sent the @CZ message in the group, things moved so fast. Now that it’s a $400k market cap, I’ll just play with a small position.

九烨加密论

$EDGE September early strong breakout 051. Until now, it has been consolidating for almost half a month. The price is still above 0.51. This is a low-volume adjustment phase. As a later entrant to PrexDex, you may consider entering at the 0.51 level.

$LIT has risen 5x from the bottom of 0.80. The daily chart is still in a bullish trend—both the highs and the lows keep getting higher. Current support is around 3.8 USD, which is a daily-timeframe level of correction. At present, it doesn’t seem like the correction is fully finished yet. You can be patient and wait for a MACD golden cross.

$HYPE We first took notice around the 30 USD range. Brother Jiu clearly stated that 30 is the line between bulls and bears, and that you should buy on dips. In fact, from 30 to 70, you gained exactly a 100% profit. But when it pulled back to 50 USD, it stabilized and then stopped the decline, quickly rallying—almost in one smooth move. Especially the surge after August 19 was relatively fast.

Now, it’s still undergoing a daily correction. You can consider entering between 60 and 70.

#ASTER is the weakest performer. It is still stuck at the key level of 0.8U. This is mainly directly related to its token mechanism, and secondarily to issues with team operations and the exchange experience. For this asset, you will rotate out and handle it between 1.4 USD and 3U.

#PreDex

$ENA A stop-decline signal appeared at the neckline position; the downside momentum is weakening. Wait for a breakout after 0.1558, and the explosive move may follow. You can consider entering.

$RAY Right now, the 1.4-dollar dip is a reduced-volume pullback; most likely it will continue to trade sideways around this level for a few more days to repair the indicators, and then it will take off again.

$UNI The main one that makes money by collecting fees is now at 6.6U. It’s expected that a new rally wave is about to begin. Those who hold it should just hold it well—don’t mess around.

#SUI Compared with other options, this public chain is moving a bit slower. It’s not that the technicals aren’t good; it’s that the fundamentals and narrative haven’t caught up. Whenever it gets pushed up, if it’s not burning, it will buy back—everything is tied to the current hot narrative.

So, SUI still needs one ladder/step. If you’ve already positioned, just hold and be patient while you wait for the main force and the project team to bring over the ladder.

#利空出尽是利好

Partly True

#美联储加息概率升至89%

There are two things that can be certain:

1. A rate hike in September is 100% certain;
2. Even if the Clear Act fails to pass, it is still only 100% certain.

The current market trend is being driven simultaneously by fundamental developments being digested and by technical adjustments, and this also fits quite well. The technical side has reached a critical pressure level that needs to be adjusted, while the fundamentals have provided a stepping stone. In this kind of situation, something that will definitely happen across all financial markets is unfolding—and it will keep repeating like this in the future.

Now, it is all about digesting the impacts brought by the two negative-news items above. The candlestick chart has already reflected every possible outcome. Once the negative news is fully priced in, the next major uptrend wave is about to begin. It is expected to happen around the National Day holiday, so September will definitely be your last opportunity to get on board this year.

九烨加密论

Bullish

九烨加密论

The most worth watching meme on the RH chain is definitely $PONS . Its peak market cap is nearly 1 billion, and it still has 680 million USD. Compared with the market cap of the launch platform on the Solana chain—$PUMP 25亿—there’s still some distance to go.

That said, even so, PONS’s current 680 million is still a bit high. I’d watch it more when it pulls back to 500 million USD—when the price reaches 0.5. For similar assets, $RAY saw a breakout surge of 60% the day before yesterday; this time it’s consolidating with reduced volume around 1.2, which makes it possible to allocate some.

#发射平台 #Robin

PUMP-3.06%

PONS-7.27%

九烨加密论

Bearish

$PAXG Gold tokens won’t have major breakthroughs before the year ends.

If there’s a conflict between the macro fundamentals and the technical chart, I will treat the chart as the standard. There are two logic points: 1) Macro fundamentals can only answer whether you can do it, not when to do it; 2) Fundamentals are too sensitive to events, while technical analysis—especially at levels above the weekly chart—can be easily “faked.”

So, the monthly chart #GOLD is still in a dead-cross state, and the correction is still ongoing. Any rebound is only a brief episode on the daily chart. The weekly chart is also in a corrective state. The only thing is that the daily chart has shown a short-lived rebound—key point: the price is still below the 200-day moving average.

This year’s opportunities still lie in $BTC $ETH , not in precious metals.

#贵金属

九烨加密论

To be honest, gold this time jumped from 3900 to 4400—an advance of 500 points all at once. I really didn’t see that coming.

But if we’re talking about a new mid-term upswing already being underway, I still have reservations. The monthly chart’s dead cross signal is still there. My judgment that the larger timeframe has entered a sideways consolidation range is something I won’t change for now.

On the short-term front, the daily chart is indeed bullish: the 20-day moving average is pointing upward, and naturally the 4H and hourly charts are bullish as well. The level at 4310 is the short-term defense point and also the short-term inflection point—if it breaks, the short-term bullish structure will loosen.

Even so, I don’t advocate chasing the rally. In the three-cycle trading method, once the larger timeframe is defined, any rebound on the smaller timeframe can only be viewed as a rebound. The correction isn’t over yet, and chasing in at this point risks getting caught near a short-term emotional peak.

My approach: continue to watch from the sidelines. Wait for clearer signals (a golden cross with the bullish alignment of the 20/60-day moving averages), and then it won’t be too late to act.

The above is based on my personal market feel, not investment advice. Have you chased this gold rebound?

$GOLD #三周期交易法
NFA｜Not investment advice. The market is risky; profits and losses are your own responsibility.

$BNC I just discovered that it has already been listed—US stock tokens $BNCB . It’s just that the price hasn’t shown yet; it should have been listed recently. This is what US stock tokenization is. Besides the four big ones, $BNB the BNC corresponding to Caiku Company is the variety we need to focus on and must not miss.

Actually, the bottom structure is already very clear. The neckline is at 3.5U—this is also the pullback point that Jiu-ge is very looking forward to. But from the entry price at 4.7U to now 5.4U, it hasn’t really pulled back at all. You can keep some positions reserved for filling the “gap.”

On the 3-day chart, it’s a standard golden column, and the middle line is at 4 dollars—also a pretty good buy point. This asset has fallen from 31 dollars. Jiu-ge thinks it won’t take too long to get back to 30 dollars.

Logic: US stock tokenization + US contractization + the narrative of US stock memes will blow up all US stock tokens, especially small-cap tokens. And BNC’s current US market cap is only 200 million—relative to the four big ones which are backed by Binance, it has more opportunity.

#美股代币化 #美股meme

九烨加密论

$BNC.US BNB Wealth Library Company, US stocks—if it weren’t for the big shots buying in, everyone would have forgotten it. This one is among the most promising US stocks; the upside potential is likely to exceed $MSTR and $CRCL .

This is the complete package: stock tokenization narrative + RWA + launch platform FROM + 4Stock. It’s the whole bundle.

BNCB-5.47%

九烨加密论

Bullish

$ASTER can be hated, but after cursing you still need to analyze rationally.

1、For this ASTER, purely from a technical perspective, it’s different from the previous trend. The daily chart’s uptrend is gradually evolving into a 3-day uptrend, and the bullish momentum is also steadily strengthening. This time, during the pullback, all products are retracting in sync.

2、0.65 is basically the low point of this round of retracement. Over the next period, it should gradually move up. Whether it can break through the key resistance at 0.8 is mainly a matter of time—it will break the critical level when a second upswing in the broader market arrives.

3、The mid-term target of 1.4U remains unchanged. Whether you need to switch positions upon reaching 1.4 is up to each person to decide based on their own situation. But it’s also true that it has wasted far too much time and tied up a lot of traders’ capital utilization.

Wait patiently for the “trash” to become a “phoenix.” But when I compare it to $LIT , I still feel like hitting someone.

九烨加密论

The curse pressure of $ASTER is at 0.8u, and the similar product $LIT $HYPE is far behind by a wide margin.

Sure enough, it's disappointing. We'll reposition the holdings when the timing is right (clear out at 1.4U).

The price is consolidating around the critical 0.8 level. The daily bullish trend has formed, and a breakout is only a matter of time. However, the selling pressure is also indeed very heavy—mainly because of its 8 billion scale. Even with an unlock delay, it will still ultimately be released. For long-term investors, it's an uncertain time bomb.

Who knows whether one day it might break through and then crash down? That depends on the project's leadership and their broader mindset.

ASTER-1.73%

九烨加密论

Part Three: #Solana On-chain

There are two launch platforms: $PUMP , which surged ahead earlier—it's impossible to chase it now. But now the price is starting to pull back as #STONK becomes popular again. Right now it has just pulled back to around 0.0035. Our key focus zone is 0.0033–0.0030. Jiu Ge believes this is an opportunity.

Next is $RAY . We started buying from 0.80–0.90, all the way to the current highest price of 1.7—this is a double-up move. Like the later bull run, it also broke out and delivered a doubled行情. There’s also another one that’s easy for everyone to overlook: #JUP .

#股票代币化

Verified

Part Two: Which assets should you pay the most attention to regarding the stock tokenization that came later on the #BSC chain?

However, its earlier launch platform token $FORM only pumped for a wave and then dropped; even before it could make another run from a higher level, it fell back to the initial rise point of 0.2400U. A lot of people are criticizing the platform team for not having staying power—either not burning it or not recovering it.

But its launched main platform $4Stock is mainly the branch that enables stock tokenization, so you can pay some attention. At the moment, there hasn’t been a decent stock meme token that has emerged. The earlier $牛来 and $Marscoin were not launched on 4STOCK.

Those two were launched by the FLAP platform and are relatively successful stock meme tokens. The Bull Coin’s hype has been quite high—its recognition overseas is also very strong. The current price is in a pullback, and the Bull Coin is a token you must keep an eye on. #Marscoin Marsian Coin is currently dropping quite sharply as well, but it should be given equal focus.

Besides the above, what else is there? See the attached table.

#代币化股票持有者增长619.1%

Bullish

Which tokenized-stock stories should you pay the most attention to during the market’s sharp crash?

First: RH Chain’s tokenized-stock meme token + related underlying assets, as the initiator of this narrative’s main storyline. The chain #RobinHood needs to pay attention to the emission platform token $PONS —it can’t be missed. Currently, 30% has already been burned. Its market cap is around 350 million. Compared with the peak, it has indeed fallen a lot, but technically it hasn’t stopped the decline yet; you need patience and wait.

Between $UNI 5.8 and -4.6, $ARB at about 0.1345 is roughly the current price. If it breaks further, it will likely go to around 0.105 and then you can wait for it. In terms of trading strategy, use the lower bound of the range as your final buy point. If it doesn’t break, be patient and hold, waiting for takeoff.

#代币化股票持有者增长619.1%

Where does it fall to?

This pullback is an early digestion of the upcoming FOMO rate meeting and the bearish expectation that #清晰法案 will not pass. By the time it truly lands, that’s also when the downtrend stops, so there’s no need to panic—rather, this is the time to look for a spot to lay in positions.

$ETH is holding the key support at 2410 for now; it hasn’t broken yet. Compared with $BTC (support at 75.5K), it has shown a stronger走势, because the ETH/BTC exchange rate has already broken above 0.032. This resilience comes from expectations and consensus about Ethereum’s future potential.

#FOMO议息会议

BTC-2.14%

ETH-3.73%

九烨加密论

These past two days have been the market for “old money coins.” One after another, they take off. $LSK is literally soaring straight up—it’s really stealing the show. If you don’t have advance information, just let it fly; don’t pay attention.

This kind of move that doesn’t belong to you will keep playing out in cycles. The key is that it won’t take long before it returns to where it started. Chasing it like this means you won’t be able to get out of your position for the rest of your life—just wait and see.

LSK+19.63%

九烨加密论

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