Encryption | Tomorrow’s Forecast | September 18
Let me say it straight from the heart: I feel very comfortable with today’s market setup. But because I feel comfortable, I’m actually a bit anxious.
$BTC hovered around 76,000 all day. The low at 75,025 wasn’t broken, and the high at 77,149 also didn’t hold. On the daily timeframe, it closed as a doji—neither bulls nor bears really took action. But honestly, the longer this range-bound action lasts, the less I dare to chase. Historically, every time BTC has stayed above 70,000 and traded sideways for more than a week, the next move is either a breakout with a large bullish candle that surpasses the prior high, or a sell-off with a large bearish candle that crashes down—there’s never a third scenario. Tomorrow, if it can’t reclaim 77,200, I’ll first take profit on the long position and cut it in half, keeping the other half to bet on the breakout.
$ETH held above 2,450 today, with a move of +2.7%, outperforming BTC by a lot. The key point is the 2,470 level. In the past week, ETH has tried to break 2,470 three times but couldn’t hold. If tomorrow it breaks upward with volume and holds, I’ll consider adding one more tier to my ETH position. If it happens again—rallies and then reverses—that would be a classic bull trap. Don’t rush to buy the dip.
$SOL is something else today—straight up above 100. The high was 101.79, up +3.67%. But when I watched the order flow, I noticed a detail: volume expanded, but open interest didn’t increase much. That suggests the pump was driven mainly by short liquidations, not real spot buying with genuine money. Once the shorts have been fully squeezed, there won’t be much momentum left. For the short term, I see 101–102 as strong resistance. If it reaches that area tomorrow, I’ll sell part of my holdings first.
A few altcoins worth paying attention to:
- PORTAL slow-growth system ranking #1, funding rate 0.005%, no crowded leverage
- CROSS up 20% in 24h, ranked on both the slow-growth list and the 24h list; money looks like it’s truly flowing in
- STEEM slow-growth + 24h double-listed; funding rate turns negative, suggesting shorts are paying for their positions—potential short-squeeze signal
- NEAR up 46% in 7 days; a pullback to 2.85 is worth watching
A few risk reminders:
1. The Fed’s rate decision meeting next week—starting tomorrow the market will enter a “wait for news” mode, and volatility may increase
2. In the top movers list, small-cap coins like ONEUSDT (+108%) and AVAUSDT (+95%) have a very high probability of a fake breakout
3. That “TSG” scam coin pops up repeatedly on both base and bsc; the CA is the same every time—classic prelude to a pump-and-dump. Don’t touch it
My trading plan:
- BTC: mostly watch and wait above 76,000. If it breaks below 75,000, stop-loss. Only act once the direction is clear
- ETH: sell high/buy low in the 2,450–2,470 range; stop-loss on a breakdown
- Altcoins: only trade among the top names on the slow-growth list; enter in batches on pullbacks—never chase green candles
- Overall position sizing: neutral bias, never above 50%
I know this kind of “forecasting” stuff—being wrong is normal, and even when I’m right, don’t take it too seriously. If tomorrow I get slapped, you can come mock me in the comments. But if it truly plays out like the script, remember to come back and hit like.
Time for a quick poll:
A. BTC breaks up tomorrow past 77,000
B. BTC dips tomorrow below 74,000
C. Range-bound continues, waiting for the Fed
Which one do you choose? Comment below
Let me say it straight from the heart: I feel very comfortable with today’s market setup. But because I feel comfortable, I’m actually a bit anxious.
$BTC hovered around 76,000 all day. The low at 75,025 wasn’t broken, and the high at 77,149 also didn’t hold. On the daily timeframe, it closed as a doji—neither bulls nor bears really took action. But honestly, the longer this range-bound action lasts, the less I dare to chase. Historically, every time BTC has stayed above 70,000 and traded sideways for more than a week, the next move is either a breakout with a large bullish candle that surpasses the prior high, or a sell-off with a large bearish candle that crashes down—there’s never a third scenario. Tomorrow, if it can’t reclaim 77,200, I’ll first take profit on the long position and cut it in half, keeping the other half to bet on the breakout.
$ETH held above 2,450 today, with a move of +2.7%, outperforming BTC by a lot. The key point is the 2,470 level. In the past week, ETH has tried to break 2,470 three times but couldn’t hold. If tomorrow it breaks upward with volume and holds, I’ll consider adding one more tier to my ETH position. If it happens again—rallies and then reverses—that would be a classic bull trap. Don’t rush to buy the dip.
$SOL is something else today—straight up above 100. The high was 101.79, up +3.67%. But when I watched the order flow, I noticed a detail: volume expanded, but open interest didn’t increase much. That suggests the pump was driven mainly by short liquidations, not real spot buying with genuine money. Once the shorts have been fully squeezed, there won’t be much momentum left. For the short term, I see 101–102 as strong resistance. If it reaches that area tomorrow, I’ll sell part of my holdings first.
A few altcoins worth paying attention to:
- PORTAL slow-growth system ranking #1, funding rate 0.005%, no crowded leverage
- CROSS up 20% in 24h, ranked on both the slow-growth list and the 24h list; money looks like it’s truly flowing in
- STEEM slow-growth + 24h double-listed; funding rate turns negative, suggesting shorts are paying for their positions—potential short-squeeze signal
- NEAR up 46% in 7 days; a pullback to 2.85 is worth watching
A few risk reminders:
1. The Fed’s rate decision meeting next week—starting tomorrow the market will enter a “wait for news” mode, and volatility may increase
2. In the top movers list, small-cap coins like ONEUSDT (+108%) and AVAUSDT (+95%) have a very high probability of a fake breakout
3. That “TSG” scam coin pops up repeatedly on both base and bsc; the CA is the same every time—classic prelude to a pump-and-dump. Don’t touch it
My trading plan:
- BTC: mostly watch and wait above 76,000. If it breaks below 75,000, stop-loss. Only act once the direction is clear
- ETH: sell high/buy low in the 2,450–2,470 range; stop-loss on a breakdown
- Altcoins: only trade among the top names on the slow-growth list; enter in batches on pullbacks—never chase green candles
- Overall position sizing: neutral bias, never above 50%
I know this kind of “forecasting” stuff—being wrong is normal, and even when I’m right, don’t take it too seriously. If tomorrow I get slapped, you can come mock me in the comments. But if it truly plays out like the script, remember to come back and hit like.
Time for a quick poll:
A. BTC breaks up tomorrow past 77,000
B. BTC dips tomorrow below 74,000
C. Range-bound continues, waiting for the Fed
Which one do you choose? Comment below