Recently, people have been yelling that the top is in by saying "ETH ETF continues net selling." First, clarify two things: liquidity conditions ≠ price action.
Facts: Over the past 7 trading days, spot ETH ETFs have cumulatively switched to net selling of about 36,000 ETH. On the 16th alone, daily net outflows were as high as 76,000 ETH. The selling is expanding. But on the same day, spot ETH was up +3.23%—the supply dumped by institutions was absorbed by spot buyers and retail buy orders.
How to understand this? In the backdrop of Fed rate hikes and upward revisions to rate expectations:
① Allocation/positioning players are most sensitive to interest rates; when liquidity expectations tighten, they cut positions first;
② Retail sentiment lags in its reaction—this is also an old characteristic of the crypto market being "priced more slowly" than the U.S. stock market;
③ Therefore, ETF-led net selling looks more like "smart money" reacting early to macro conditions, rather than a conclusion that the trend has already reversed.
Going forward, watch three things: whether large-scale selling can converge quickly, whether repurchases can expand to more products, and whether selling spreads from ETH to BTC ETFs. Outflows from a single product may be rotational; only sustained outflows from BTC would be a systematic signal.
(These are observations on liquidity conditions and do not constitute investment advice.)
Facts: Over the past 7 trading days, spot ETH ETFs have cumulatively switched to net selling of about 36,000 ETH. On the 16th alone, daily net outflows were as high as 76,000 ETH. The selling is expanding. But on the same day, spot ETH was up +3.23%—the supply dumped by institutions was absorbed by spot buyers and retail buy orders.
How to understand this? In the backdrop of Fed rate hikes and upward revisions to rate expectations:
① Allocation/positioning players are most sensitive to interest rates; when liquidity expectations tighten, they cut positions first;
② Retail sentiment lags in its reaction—this is also an old characteristic of the crypto market being "priced more slowly" than the U.S. stock market;
③ Therefore, ETF-led net selling looks more like "smart money" reacting early to macro conditions, rather than a conclusion that the trend has already reversed.
Going forward, watch three things: whether large-scale selling can converge quickly, whether repurchases can expand to more products, and whether selling spreads from ETH to BTC ETFs. Outflows from a single product may be rotational; only sustained outflows from BTC would be a systematic signal.
(These are observations on liquidity conditions and do not constitute investment advice.)
