#美联储sep预计2026利率4.1%
In the SEP, both 2026 and 2027 are 4.1%. On the same day, the market priced in a probability of more than 80% that there will be one additional rate hike before the end of the year—yet BTC still rose by 1%.
▪️ Median for end-2026: 3.75% → 4.125%
▪️ Long-run neutral rate: 3.1% → 3.2%
▪️ Getting inflation back to 2% will take until 2029
4.1% is not the ceiling. It’s the median outcome produced by 18 participants. Twelve people think there should be one more hike, and only two think there should be no further hikes. It lands at 4.1% because the statement is “one more time,” not “finished.”
What’s really worth watching is how it matches the 2027 dot: after this one additional hike, it stops, and 2027 stays unchanged all year. What the market is buying is this “no further move.”
Waller said there would be no forward guidance. The committee deliberately avoids giving direction—yet the market picks the most comfortable box from the dot plot: the long-run neutral rate, the only one not moving with the cycle, and it was even raised. It doesn’t describe this round; it describes what comes after.
Next to watch: ① When the 2028 dot (3.9%) gets revised down—that’s the signal that the easing has been officially acknowledged ② Whether the long-run neutral rate will be moved up again ③ The December FOMC; most likely no change in October.
BTC is around 768,000. A two-year flat path implies that in 2027, the rates will provide no incremental information. Don’t treat “the Fed will pivot” as a buying reason. The official signal begins with the 2028 dot starting to be revised down.
Which dot are you looking at? $BTC
In the SEP, both 2026 and 2027 are 4.1%. On the same day, the market priced in a probability of more than 80% that there will be one additional rate hike before the end of the year—yet BTC still rose by 1%.
▪️ Median for end-2026: 3.75% → 4.125%
▪️ Long-run neutral rate: 3.1% → 3.2%
▪️ Getting inflation back to 2% will take until 2029
4.1% is not the ceiling. It’s the median outcome produced by 18 participants. Twelve people think there should be one more hike, and only two think there should be no further hikes. It lands at 4.1% because the statement is “one more time,” not “finished.”
What’s really worth watching is how it matches the 2027 dot: after this one additional hike, it stops, and 2027 stays unchanged all year. What the market is buying is this “no further move.”
Waller said there would be no forward guidance. The committee deliberately avoids giving direction—yet the market picks the most comfortable box from the dot plot: the long-run neutral rate, the only one not moving with the cycle, and it was even raised. It doesn’t describe this round; it describes what comes after.
Next to watch: ① When the 2028 dot (3.9%) gets revised down—that’s the signal that the easing has been officially acknowledged ② Whether the long-run neutral rate will be moved up again ③ The December FOMC; most likely no change in October.
BTC is around 768,000. A two-year flat path implies that in 2027, the rates will provide no incremental information. Don’t treat “the Fed will pivot” as a buying reason. The official signal begins with the 2028 dot starting to be revised down.
Which dot are you looking at? $BTC
