#美国初请失业金人数降至19.6万
First-time claims at 196,000 and continuing claims at 1.73 million—both near a one-month low. The odds of a rate hike in October are less than half. The stronger the data, the less the market believes it will continue.
▪️ First-time claims 196,000 (forecast 208,000 / prior 206,000), the lowest since mid-July
▪️ Continuing claims 1.73 million, down 39,000, the lowest since the start of 2024
▪️ Collection week 9/6–9/12, with a potential rate hike on 9/16
Yesterday, Waller said that the labor market is a “basic, strong signal,” and that the unemployment rate is “basically consistent with full employment.” The evidence he cited and today’s document are from the same passage. So this is a snapshot taken before a rate hike, not an exam report after the hike.
The market doesn’t treat this data as a reason for a rate hike—not because it doesn’t acknowledge employment, but because it knows there has not been a single rate hike in the sample. And the first-time claims covered here is exactly the week that will be surveyed for the October 2 jobs report.
Before the Oct. 28 FOMC meeting, there is only one more jobs report. The first “frame” after the rate hike is actually next Thursday’s first-time claims.
BTC is about 76,300. In the past 24 hours it ranged from 74,911 to 76,714. What’s weighing on it is the real yield and
ETF: the dot plot has also been adjusted to 4.1% by the end of 2027. On 9/15, spot ETF outflows were $450.3 million in a single day. Watch whether it can hold above 76,700; if it breaks below 75,000, the next support zone is 71,300–72,000.
When you read this data, do you see it as a reason to raise rates, or a reason to pause?$BTC
First-time claims at 196,000 and continuing claims at 1.73 million—both near a one-month low. The odds of a rate hike in October are less than half. The stronger the data, the less the market believes it will continue.
▪️ First-time claims 196,000 (forecast 208,000 / prior 206,000), the lowest since mid-July
▪️ Continuing claims 1.73 million, down 39,000, the lowest since the start of 2024
▪️ Collection week 9/6–9/12, with a potential rate hike on 9/16
Yesterday, Waller said that the labor market is a “basic, strong signal,” and that the unemployment rate is “basically consistent with full employment.” The evidence he cited and today’s document are from the same passage. So this is a snapshot taken before a rate hike, not an exam report after the hike.
The market doesn’t treat this data as a reason for a rate hike—not because it doesn’t acknowledge employment, but because it knows there has not been a single rate hike in the sample. And the first-time claims covered here is exactly the week that will be surveyed for the October 2 jobs report.
Before the Oct. 28 FOMC meeting, there is only one more jobs report. The first “frame” after the rate hike is actually next Thursday’s first-time claims.
BTC is about 76,300. In the past 24 hours it ranged from 74,911 to 76,714. What’s weighing on it is the real yield and
ETF: the dot plot has also been adjusted to 4.1% by the end of 2027. On 9/15, spot ETF outflows were $450.3 million in a single day. Watch whether it can hold above 76,700; if it breaks below 75,000, the next support zone is 71,300–72,000.
When you read this data, do you see it as a reason to raise rates, or a reason to pause?$BTC
