I think this rate hike of 25 basis points, on the surface, is like a “shoe dropping,” but in reality it’s the starter pistol for a new round of tightening. Everyone, don’t be fooled by the temporary calm in the short term.
Although it’s in line with expectations, the dot plot shows that 16 out of 18 people think there will still be additional hikes by the end of the year. What does that mean? It means that today’s 3.75%–4.00% is definitely not the top yet. I just closed my positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum last week, precisely because I’m worried about this kind of “slow-boiled frog” market.
Remember back in 2022, every time they said “this is the last rate hike,” and then the market kept falling even harder afterward. This time, the White House is still talking about cutting rates—going head-to-head with the Fed. When policymakers’ stances clash, the market is most easily harvested repeatedly.
I saw the Dow drop by more than 600 points intraday—that’s capital voting with its feet. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has broken above 5%. That’s the anchor for global asset pricing. Once it rises, how could those highly valued tech stocks and risk assets possibly hold up?
So my advice is: for now, BTC and ETH may look like they’re slightly up. You can trade with a light position for short-term moves, since BTC and ETH swing a lot—take a small bite and run. But going heavy on the position is not acceptable. You might get blown up before the news even fully comes out.
At this point in time, cash is king—or positioning in short-duration Treasuries is the real answer. Even if you earn a little less, don’t catch falling knives at this kind of turning point. Survival matters more than anything.#美联储何时降息？
Although it’s in line with expectations, the dot plot shows that 16 out of 18 people think there will still be additional hikes by the end of the year. What does that mean? It means that today’s 3.75%–4.00% is definitely not the top yet. I just closed my positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum last week, precisely because I’m worried about this kind of “slow-boiled frog” market.
Remember back in 2022, every time they said “this is the last rate hike,” and then the market kept falling even harder afterward. This time, the White House is still talking about cutting rates—going head-to-head with the Fed. When policymakers’ stances clash, the market is most easily harvested repeatedly.
I saw the Dow drop by more than 600 points intraday—that’s capital voting with its feet. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has broken above 5%. That’s the anchor for global asset pricing. Once it rises, how could those highly valued tech stocks and risk assets possibly hold up?
So my advice is: for now, BTC and ETH may look like they’re slightly up. You can trade with a light position for short-term moves, since BTC and ETH swing a lot—take a small bite and run. But going heavy on the position is not acceptable. You might get blown up before the news even fully comes out.
At this point in time, cash is king—or positioning in short-duration Treasuries is the real answer. Even if you earn a little less, don’t catch falling knives at this kind of turning point. Survival matters more than anything.#美联储何时降息？