First, look at the liquidation data.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated a total of 632 million. Long liquidations were 526 million, while short liquidations were only 106 million. Bitcoin long liquidations were 174 million, shorts only 37 million. Ethereum is even worse—long liquidations were 181 million.
Study this ratio. What got liquidated were all longs. It’s not that the bears are winning—it's that the longs are being repeatedly swept out. The price moved down from around 79,000, pushing the people chasing longs out one by one, and then it stopped at 77,000. Is this position just a temporary rest spot after the washout, or is it a relay point for the next leg of the downswing? I don’t know.
But one detail is pretty interesting.
On September 15, the Clarity Act was rejected in the Senate procedural vote. 49 votes in favor, 50 against—didn’t reach the 60-vote threshold. The probability in the prediction market that the bill would pass before the end of the year dropped directly from over 30% to around 5%.
After the news, Bitcoin fell from 79,600 to below 75,000. The amount of coins transferred from short-term holders to exchanges spiked from a daily average of 19,400 BTC to 33,100 BTC, with 23,200 BTC of that in losses.
This is capitulation. Not panic selling—it's that those who chased in at 79,000 and 80,000 couldn't take it anymore, and cut.
The ETF side is retreating too.
From September 8 to 11, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of 463 million, ending three consecutive weeks of inflows. ARKB ran out 250 million, GBTC out 129 million, and even BlackRock’s IBIT exited 52.5 million.
But Ethereum ETFs are doing the opposite. On September 11 alone, ETH ETFs had net inflows of 216 million; BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for 149 million by itself, with net inflows continuing for 20 straight trading days.
Money is moving from BTC to ETH. This isn’t something I made up—it’s from Farside data. Same market, same time, two directions.
Whether 77,000 holds isn’t about the candlesticks—it depends on what happens after next week’s FOMC, whether those still holding U on the sidelines are willing to come in.
Right now, the people entering the market are either betting that the rate hike landing will be a negative-forcing “bad news but good news” and the bad news is already out, or betting that the Clarity Act still has a turnaround. These two groups are betting on two completely different things.
—Pure Flow Channel #比特币突破77000美元
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated a total of 632 million. Long liquidations were 526 million, while short liquidations were only 106 million. Bitcoin long liquidations were 174 million, shorts only 37 million. Ethereum is even worse—long liquidations were 181 million.
Study this ratio. What got liquidated were all longs. It’s not that the bears are winning—it's that the longs are being repeatedly swept out. The price moved down from around 79,000, pushing the people chasing longs out one by one, and then it stopped at 77,000. Is this position just a temporary rest spot after the washout, or is it a relay point for the next leg of the downswing? I don’t know.
But one detail is pretty interesting.
On September 15, the Clarity Act was rejected in the Senate procedural vote. 49 votes in favor, 50 against—didn’t reach the 60-vote threshold. The probability in the prediction market that the bill would pass before the end of the year dropped directly from over 30% to around 5%.
After the news, Bitcoin fell from 79,600 to below 75,000. The amount of coins transferred from short-term holders to exchanges spiked from a daily average of 19,400 BTC to 33,100 BTC, with 23,200 BTC of that in losses.
This is capitulation. Not panic selling—it's that those who chased in at 79,000 and 80,000 couldn't take it anymore, and cut.
The ETF side is retreating too.
From September 8 to 11, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of 463 million, ending three consecutive weeks of inflows. ARKB ran out 250 million, GBTC out 129 million, and even BlackRock’s IBIT exited 52.5 million.
But Ethereum ETFs are doing the opposite. On September 11 alone, ETH ETFs had net inflows of 216 million; BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for 149 million by itself, with net inflows continuing for 20 straight trading days.
Money is moving from BTC to ETH. This isn’t something I made up—it’s from Farside data. Same market, same time, two directions.
Whether 77,000 holds isn’t about the candlesticks—it depends on what happens after next week’s FOMC, whether those still holding U on the sidelines are willing to come in.
Right now, the people entering the market are either betting that the rate hike landing will be a negative-forcing “bad news but good news” and the bad news is already out, or betting that the Clarity Act still has a turnaround. These two groups are betting on two completely different things.
—Pure Flow Channel #比特币突破77000美元