The Fed hiked again, and long-end U.S. Treasuries didn’t exactly give it face. $牛来 $龙虾 $币安人生
The 10-year yield first dropped to 4.95%, then turned around and crept back near 5%. The 30-year is even tougher—it’s been staying above 5% all along. The 2-year also rose to 4.73%. The market is telling you one thing: this rate hike may not be the end.
Voosh came out to explain that long-end rates are high because the economy is strengthening, AI is grabbing money, and geopolitics is at play. It sounds reasonable, but he missed the most lethal piece: the fiscal deficit and debt sustainability. The U.S. government owes about $40 trillion, and interest keeps compounding—this is the root reason long-end yields can’t come down. If he doesn’t mention it, the market won’t pretend it can’t see.
Next, you need to watch a key signal. If the 2-year yield starts to fall once rate-hike expectations peak, but the 10-year and 30-year yields remain stubbornly stuck above 5%, then it means the long-end pricing is no longer just about simple rate expectations. It’s the combined force of term premium, inflation risk, and capital demand. In that situation, the valuation threshold for high-beta assets will be lifted by default.
For BTC, the short-term situation is actually quite awkward. After the rate hike was implemented, it didn’t drop—instead, it rose 1.53%, looking quite resilient. But as long as long-end Treasuries keep clamping down at 5%, the valuation ceiling for risk assets will be kept under pressure, and the room for any rebound is destined to be limited. In the short term, it’s about sentiment; in the medium term, it’s about liquidity. Until the rate-string loosens, don’t hold too much hope for a one-way market. Do you think the U.S. 5% Treasury yield will become the new normal? #比特币突破77000美元 #Arkham称贝莱德20天买入15亿美元ETH #FCA突查伦敦三处非法加密交易点
The 10-year yield first dropped to 4.95%, then turned around and crept back near 5%. The 30-year is even tougher—it’s been staying above 5% all along. The 2-year also rose to 4.73%. The market is telling you one thing: this rate hike may not be the end.
Voosh came out to explain that long-end rates are high because the economy is strengthening, AI is grabbing money, and geopolitics is at play. It sounds reasonable, but he missed the most lethal piece: the fiscal deficit and debt sustainability. The U.S. government owes about $40 trillion, and interest keeps compounding—this is the root reason long-end yields can’t come down. If he doesn’t mention it, the market won’t pretend it can’t see.
Next, you need to watch a key signal. If the 2-year yield starts to fall once rate-hike expectations peak, but the 10-year and 30-year yields remain stubbornly stuck above 5%, then it means the long-end pricing is no longer just about simple rate expectations. It’s the combined force of term premium, inflation risk, and capital demand. In that situation, the valuation threshold for high-beta assets will be lifted by default.
For BTC, the short-term situation is actually quite awkward. After the rate hike was implemented, it didn’t drop—instead, it rose 1.53%, looking quite resilient. But as long as long-end Treasuries keep clamping down at 5%, the valuation ceiling for risk assets will be kept under pressure, and the room for any rebound is destined to be limited. In the short term, it’s about sentiment; in the medium term, it’s about liquidity. Until the rate-string loosens, don’t hold too much hope for a one-way market. Do you think the U.S. 5% Treasury yield will become the new normal? #比特币突破77000美元 #Arkham称贝莱德20天买入15亿美元ETH #FCA突查伦敦三处非法加密交易点
