Now it depends on which side issues good news and pumps the market. Basically, the rate-hike negative news is already out, and we’re seeing a rebound with a broad-based uptrend today. But it’s not impossible that Iran comes out with something else later 😅
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FOMO港美股
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BullishThe Fed’s rate-hike decision at dawn can be described as a “sit-up and rise again—expectations to reality, then bearish news gets priced in, with a slightly hawkish turn afterward.”
Let’s recap last night’s rate decision by looking at the intraday chart and the corresponding time points:
- 2:00 a.m. announced a 25bp hike => in line with expectations. Bad news gets priced in, and there’s a modest rebound.
- 2:30–3:00 a.m.: Old World’s remarks begin the back-and-forth process:
1. The dot plot suggests there will be only one more hike within the year
2. Old World explicitly said inflation is “too high and has persisted for too long,” and that summer data has not shown inflation improving
3. But afterward, Old World refused to provide forward-looking guidance on the outlook for further rate hikes
4. Then, from outside the market, a White House spokesperson said the Fed’s rate hikes are “quite regrettable”
5. Finally, Old World reiterated again that the hikes demonstrate determination to control inflation
- After hours, Wang made comments saying U.S. interest rates should fall to 1% or lower
So it’s clear from the 2:30 a.m. intraday chart of the Nasdaq that it first went up (↑), then trended steadily downward, with a rise again into the close and after hours. U.S. tech stocks and popular shares saw rebounds of varying degrees after hours.
At the same time, Polymarket also showed changes in expectations for the late-October rate decision: the probability of a 25bp hike is now approaching the probability of no hike.
Overall, although the process was pretty bumpy, the end of the rate-hike meeting also symbolizes that near-term rate-hike expectations’ downside is being priced in. Next, it all comes down to whether there will be more back-and-forth with Iran. Some tech and AI stocks also released positive news after hours to rally—for example, $NBIS announced that it will comprehensively and significantly raise the rental prices of NVIDIA GPUs starting October 1, and the stock jumped nearly 7% after hours.
#美联储加息是否已成定局
Let’s recap last night’s rate decision by looking at the intraday chart and the corresponding time points:
- 2:00 a.m. announced a 25bp hike => in line with expectations. Bad news gets priced in, and there’s a modest rebound.
- 2:30–3:00 a.m.: Old World’s remarks begin the back-and-forth process:
1. The dot plot suggests there will be only one more hike within the year
2. Old World explicitly said inflation is “too high and has persisted for too long,” and that summer data has not shown inflation improving
3. But afterward, Old World refused to provide forward-looking guidance on the outlook for further rate hikes
4. Then, from outside the market, a White House spokesperson said the Fed’s rate hikes are “quite regrettable”
5. Finally, Old World reiterated again that the hikes demonstrate determination to control inflation
- After hours, Wang made comments saying U.S. interest rates should fall to 1% or lower
So it’s clear from the 2:30 a.m. intraday chart of the Nasdaq that it first went up (↑), then trended steadily downward, with a rise again into the close and after hours. U.S. tech stocks and popular shares saw rebounds of varying degrees after hours.
At the same time, Polymarket also showed changes in expectations for the late-October rate decision: the probability of a 25bp hike is now approaching the probability of no hike.
Overall, although the process was pretty bumpy, the end of the rate-hike meeting also symbolizes that near-term rate-hike expectations’ downside is being priced in. Next, it all comes down to whether there will be more back-and-forth with Iran. Some tech and AI stocks also released positive news after hours to rally—for example, $NBIS announced that it will comprehensively and significantly raise the rental prices of NVIDIA GPUs starting October 1, and the stock jumped nearly 7% after hours.
#美联储加息是否已成定局
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