Goldman’s strategists have recently said something worth pondering: this round of selling has pushed yields higher, the value of bonds in a portfolio has strengthened, and investors should still remain cautious. Polite as it is, the meaning is clear—things are cheaper now, but there’s no need to rush in and grab them.
In refined terms, it’s “be cautious”; in plain terms, it’s “don’t touch it.” Those two words from the mouths of sell-side strategists have never carried light weight.
The more important point, though, isn’t in the first line. It’s that phrase—"volatility may increase further." Long-end rates are the discount rate for all assets. When they move, stocks, real estate, and crypto all have to be repriced from scratch. The longer the duration, the more dramatic the valuation swings when the discount rate twitches. In recent years, crypto has been talked about as digital gold, a standalone market. But if the wind comes from the long end, it can’t truly become a shelter—it can at best be another flag waving in the same storm.
What’s being squeezed, then, is the pool of capital that has treated crypto as a hedging tool. Their logic is all built on “moving opposite to old assets,” and now the ground beneath that foundation is being surveyed anew. Whoever’s standing on it is the first to feel the shaking.
So don’t start by asking whether crypto will go up. First ask whether the volatility of long Treasuries will continue to widen. If, in the data ahead, long-end volatility rises while the correlation between Bitcoin and the long-end Treasury yields actually falls, then everything I’ve said will have been for nothing—that would only mean it’s truly an independent market.
#加密市场 #行情 #Macroeconomics
In refined terms, it’s “be cautious”; in plain terms, it’s “don’t touch it.” Those two words from the mouths of sell-side strategists have never carried light weight.
The more important point, though, isn’t in the first line. It’s that phrase—"volatility may increase further." Long-end rates are the discount rate for all assets. When they move, stocks, real estate, and crypto all have to be repriced from scratch. The longer the duration, the more dramatic the valuation swings when the discount rate twitches. In recent years, crypto has been talked about as digital gold, a standalone market. But if the wind comes from the long end, it can’t truly become a shelter—it can at best be another flag waving in the same storm.
What’s being squeezed, then, is the pool of capital that has treated crypto as a hedging tool. Their logic is all built on “moving opposite to old assets,” and now the ground beneath that foundation is being surveyed anew. Whoever’s standing on it is the first to feel the shaking.
So don’t start by asking whether crypto will go up. First ask whether the volatility of long Treasuries will continue to widen. If, in the data ahead, long-end volatility rises while the correlation between Bitcoin and the long-end Treasury yields actually falls, then everything I’ve said will have been for nothing—that would only mean it’s truly an independent market.
#加密市场 #行情 #Macroeconomics
