【Rate hike lands: how will semiconductors trade tonight?】
The Federal Reserve officially raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Also, among the 18 officials, 16 expect at least one more rate hike within the year, and overall guidance is relatively hawkish. After the rate-hike event was delivered, US stocks did not continue an uninterrupted selloff—instead, there was a clear rebound, suggesting that some negative impact had already been priced in ahead of time.
More importantly, today oil prices pulled back by about 3%, and yields on long-term US Treasuries eased somewhat. Market anxiety about the rate impact has started to cool. For semiconductors, this matters more than the question of whether or not there is a rate hike itself.
The market has already sent signals on the board: SOXL 114.22, +6.58%; SNDK +1.33%; MU +1.81%; SK Hynix +0.73%.
So tonight I’m focusing on SOXL:
Around 114 is the rebound starting point;
After it holds, the first resistance is 116-118;
If it breaks through, then look at 120-123, and in a strong move, around 125.
If it falls back below 114, first watch 110, then 107-108; for an extreme pullback, monitor 104-105.
The biggest variable now is not the “rate hike” itself, but whether, after the hike lands, yields and liquidity/positioning continue to improve.
If semiconductors can break out above 116-118 with volume tonight, this move may upgrade from a simple oversold rebound into a more complete trend repair cycle.
With the rate hike now in place, the real fight for semiconductors has just begun#美联储SEP预计2026利率4.1% $SNDK $SOXL
The Federal Reserve officially raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Also, among the 18 officials, 16 expect at least one more rate hike within the year, and overall guidance is relatively hawkish. After the rate-hike event was delivered, US stocks did not continue an uninterrupted selloff—instead, there was a clear rebound, suggesting that some negative impact had already been priced in ahead of time.
More importantly, today oil prices pulled back by about 3%, and yields on long-term US Treasuries eased somewhat. Market anxiety about the rate impact has started to cool. For semiconductors, this matters more than the question of whether or not there is a rate hike itself.
The market has already sent signals on the board: SOXL 114.22, +6.58%; SNDK +1.33%; MU +1.81%; SK Hynix +0.73%.
So tonight I’m focusing on SOXL:
Around 114 is the rebound starting point;
After it holds, the first resistance is 116-118;
If it breaks through, then look at 120-123, and in a strong move, around 125.
If it falls back below 114, first watch 110, then 107-108; for an extreme pullback, monitor 104-105.
The biggest variable now is not the “rate hike” itself, but whether, after the hike lands, yields and liquidity/positioning continue to improve.
If semiconductors can break out above 116-118 with volume tonight, this move may upgrade from a simple oversold rebound into a more complete trend repair cycle.
With the rate hike now in place, the real fight for semiconductors has just begun#美联储SEP预计2026利率4.1% $SNDK $SOXL
