People who win as soon as they sit down are most likely to develop the illusion that they can control the whole situation, whether they’re doing engineering or contracts.
In the afternoon, I met a local female reader in the lobby of a hotel in Jingdezhen with my ex-wife from Japan. She was a southerner, with a small frame and very slender, looking about thirty-something. When we first sat down, she was so nervous she was trembling; even the lobby security guards glanced at us twice.
Once we started talking, I found out that she now makes a living by calling gift companies to pitch and sell customized porcelain. She makes more than a hundred calls a day and has an extremely high hang-up rate. I comforted her, saying that in this kind of environment, earning ten thousand a month is already pretty good. She gave a bitter smile and said it’s all fate.
She used to be a kindergarten teacher. Her husband worked for a telecom company, and they had a son—life was steady. Later she got pregnant with their second child, and her in-laws couldn’t help, so she had no choice but to quit and stay home full-time to take care of the kids. Her husband felt the dead-salary income wasn’t enough to cover expenses, so he quit and went to do telecom tower business with someone. The first year went extremely smoothly—he earned more than 200,000. At year-end, the whole family even went on a trip to Shanghai.
This became the biggest turning point. In a favorable trend, it amplifies people’s courage. After her husband tasted a sweet spot, he switched into a subcontractor mode, taking all sorts of deals that required upfront funding from others. Without capital, he had her sign at banks to arrange joint-guarantee loans, and even borrowed at usurious rates. In the end, the partner refused to honor it, and the capital chain was completely broken.
Her husband was so scared that he ran away to avoid debts, not even daring to go home for the New Year. He could only sneak back in the middle of the night to take a look at the kids, then leave at dawn. The rest of her life is with the two sons, living in a house that’s worth less than what they owe, with creditors blocking the door every day, shouting and writing nasty insults. To force her, they even use psychological tactics to torment her, saying her husband’s money was actually all spent on the woman outside.
When it came to this, her originally well-kept face finally couldn’t hold it together anymore—she burst into loud sobs in the lobby. Her Japanese ex-wife went over and hugged her, sighing.
After I sent her off, the Japanese ex-wife asked me with red eyes: since there wasn’t that much money, why did this man dare to borrow so much to front the funding? I said, because the first year, he easily made those 200,000.
In pursuit of bigger returns, people often unconsciously crank up leverage until they’ve staked their whole life and fate on it. At that point, as soon as the situation shifts slightly against them—beyond what they can tolerate—people are left with nothing but instinctive fear and avoidance.
In reality, when fronting funding blows up, this is the outcome. In the market, blindly chasing longs is the same storyline, word for word.
Around a bit after 8 p.m., $ETH the longs, riding a burst of momentum, suddenly exploded with massive volume—one brutal swing of a stick pushed the price straight up to 2479.44. People who hadn’t gotten on board below saw this and instantly got the illusion of, “It’s about to break out and get rich!” They rushed to max out leverage, fearing missing the chance, and charged in to take the bag.
What about the result? At this price level, it only stayed for an extremely short time—then it was instantly smashed back down, leaving a long upper shadow.
Because they simply didn’t know that in the 2480 to 2500 range, densely packed all over it are the trapped chips from the days when price surged earlier. The psychological state of those who got trapped a few days ago after going all-in on leverage is exactly the same as that debt-dodging husband: every day on tenterhooks, surrounded on all sides, all waiting for price to come back so they can finally breathe.
Tonight, when big money probes upward, it’s not really to rescue them—it’s just sticking the probe in to measure how heavy the sell pressure above actually is.
After trying it, the unwind-and-bail-out plate gets dumped like a waterfall going straight down. Everyone is cutting losses and fleeing for their lives. With the overhead baggage so heavy, and the buy-side energy below already used up, the main force naturally won’t go charging in as that fool who takes the bag. If they can’t break upward, then they can only go in the direction with the least resistance—continue washing people downwards. Repeatedly step the support zone from 2420 to 2435 firmly. Grind those indecisive longs, along with the people who picked up at the highs, until they’re worn into despair.
📉【ETH Evening Strategy】
Tactical direction: short
Entry zone: 2485 - 2495 (the needle from just now was to test the sell pressure; most likely it will test again)
Life-or-death line: 2515 (if large capital suddenly goes crazy and large-bodied volume holds steady above 2500, it means the situation has changed. Breakthrough + admit fault + exit—protecting your life comes first; never hold the position stubbornly)
Take-profit zone: 2430 to scale out / 2370 to fully exit
💡 When your cards are bad, admitting you’re wrong and exiting early can still save your life. Forcing yourself to front the funding and holding the position—then the end is doomed to irreversible ruin.