Encryption | Evening Post-Market Review | September 17
BTC is still ranging and bottoming around 76k, but SOL quietly reclaimed 100, and ETH’s gain is double BTC’s—this signal is one I dare not ignore.
Tonight’s review, I’ll start with an observation: today ETH rose 2.46%, BTC rose 1.32%, and SOL rose 3.61%. ETH’s increase is nearly twice BTC’s, and SOL is even stronger. This kind of leadership divergence has shown up repeatedly over the past week—definitely not a coincidence.
First, let’s look at today’s main storyline.
BTC today moved from 75,025 to 76,782, with daily swings of about $2,100. On the daily timeframe, the resistance around 77,150 has been repeatedly tested this week. Today it surged to 77,149.8—just barely short of settling—then got knocked back. My first reaction was that the main players are controlling it: deliberately not breaking through, hitting stop-losses on breakout positions. Support sits at the 75,000 psychological level; over the past two days, every pullback has had buyers stepping in. Overall structure: wide-range consolidation with no clear direction.
But interestingly, ETH is different. From 2365 to 2460, with an intraday high of 2479—its strength is clearly greater than BTC’s. When BTC is moving sideways, ETH can still rally. This usually implies capital is rotating—from the big coin into the second-tier leaders. Even old-timers know: once the ETH/BTC ratio starts to rise, it often signals the prelude to the alt season.
SOL is even more worth mentioning today. It pulled back from 96 to 100.8, then reclaimed the 100 whole-number level. In the past few days, SOL had been suppressed below 100 and the market was generally pessimistic. Today’s single bullish candle reclaiming it shows that someone is defending from below 100. Still, I won’t chase it—because above 100 there’s a dense cluster of trapped supply, and without the volume to support a direct breakout, it’s easy for it to turn into a fake breakout. I’ve suffered from that “breakdown is the top” scenario more than a few times.
Data to confirm.
On the gainers list, first is AVAUSDT, +89.97%. It looks tempting, but a reminder: our system has run statistics. In the past, for coins with similar fake-breakout behavior, the average initial pump was about 14%, and within one hour, 78% of them fully fell back—true breakouts were 0%. With a near-90% surge like AVA, it’s highly likely it’s a pump-and-distribution setup. Don’t chase.
The losers list is even more interesting. AKEUSDT is up 561% over 7 days, but down 23.91% in the last 24 hours. That’s the classic “make a god in 7 days, harvest in 1 day.” Compare that with BULLAUSDT: up 42% over 7 days, but up steadily 23% over 24h, continuously raising higher lows. That’s what a healthy trend looks like. Fast up and fast down is a short-term capital game, not a real trend.
Now look at a few slow-climbing signals. In the slow-climb leaderboard, PORTALUSDT has a score of 75, CROSSUSDT 72, and KOMAUSDT 71. The common traits are steadily raising lows, shallow pullbacks, and a high bull_ratio. Compared with the fake breakouts on the gainers list, these “small steady steps” are actually the kind of work real funds are doing.
In the stealth leaderboard, FLOCKUSDT has a volume ratio of 38.8x and MANTRA 20.5x. Volume leads price action—suggesting there may be funds quietly building positions. I won’t go heavy, but I’ll put them into my observation pool and scan once per day.
My trading judgment:
As for BTC: the 75k to 77.2k range consolidation hasn’t broken yet, so it’s mainly a wait-and-see situation—I won’t chase. If it pulls back to 75k and stabilizes, I’ll test a long with a small position size, with a stop-loss at 74,800.
ETH and SOL are stronger than BTC, but don’t chase highs—wait for a pullback to the 5-day line before considering.
For the top names on the gainers list: keep your distance. The probability of fake breakouts around 78% isn’t something to take lightly.
For the candidates on the slow-climb and stealth leaderboards: add them to the observation pool, don’t take action.
One-sentence summary of today’s market: BTC has no direction but hasn’t broken down. ETH and SOL have seen capital move first, but they still need BTC confirmation. Tomorrow morning, we’ll see whether BTC can hold above 76,500—if it can, I’ll lean bullish; if not, then it’ll likely keep grinding.
Finally, one question for everyone:
Do you think this strength in ETH and SOL is a real start, or just a bull trap?
A. Real start—ETH and SOL lead the charge; the alt season is coming
B. Bull trap—if BTC doesn’t move, it’s just false fire; it’ll come down eventually
C. Can’t tell—best to wait and see
Leave your choice in the comments. See you tomorrow for the next review.
BTC is still ranging and bottoming around 76k, but SOL quietly reclaimed 100, and ETH’s gain is double BTC’s—this signal is one I dare not ignore.
Tonight’s review, I’ll start with an observation: today ETH rose 2.46%, BTC rose 1.32%, and SOL rose 3.61%. ETH’s increase is nearly twice BTC’s, and SOL is even stronger. This kind of leadership divergence has shown up repeatedly over the past week—definitely not a coincidence.
First, let’s look at today’s main storyline.
BTC today moved from 75,025 to 76,782, with daily swings of about $2,100. On the daily timeframe, the resistance around 77,150 has been repeatedly tested this week. Today it surged to 77,149.8—just barely short of settling—then got knocked back. My first reaction was that the main players are controlling it: deliberately not breaking through, hitting stop-losses on breakout positions. Support sits at the 75,000 psychological level; over the past two days, every pullback has had buyers stepping in. Overall structure: wide-range consolidation with no clear direction.
But interestingly, ETH is different. From 2365 to 2460, with an intraday high of 2479—its strength is clearly greater than BTC’s. When BTC is moving sideways, ETH can still rally. This usually implies capital is rotating—from the big coin into the second-tier leaders. Even old-timers know: once the ETH/BTC ratio starts to rise, it often signals the prelude to the alt season.
SOL is even more worth mentioning today. It pulled back from 96 to 100.8, then reclaimed the 100 whole-number level. In the past few days, SOL had been suppressed below 100 and the market was generally pessimistic. Today’s single bullish candle reclaiming it shows that someone is defending from below 100. Still, I won’t chase it—because above 100 there’s a dense cluster of trapped supply, and without the volume to support a direct breakout, it’s easy for it to turn into a fake breakout. I’ve suffered from that “breakdown is the top” scenario more than a few times.
Data to confirm.
On the gainers list, first is AVAUSDT, +89.97%. It looks tempting, but a reminder: our system has run statistics. In the past, for coins with similar fake-breakout behavior, the average initial pump was about 14%, and within one hour, 78% of them fully fell back—true breakouts were 0%. With a near-90% surge like AVA, it’s highly likely it’s a pump-and-distribution setup. Don’t chase.
The losers list is even more interesting. AKEUSDT is up 561% over 7 days, but down 23.91% in the last 24 hours. That’s the classic “make a god in 7 days, harvest in 1 day.” Compare that with BULLAUSDT: up 42% over 7 days, but up steadily 23% over 24h, continuously raising higher lows. That’s what a healthy trend looks like. Fast up and fast down is a short-term capital game, not a real trend.
Now look at a few slow-climbing signals. In the slow-climb leaderboard, PORTALUSDT has a score of 75, CROSSUSDT 72, and KOMAUSDT 71. The common traits are steadily raising lows, shallow pullbacks, and a high bull_ratio. Compared with the fake breakouts on the gainers list, these “small steady steps” are actually the kind of work real funds are doing.
In the stealth leaderboard, FLOCKUSDT has a volume ratio of 38.8x and MANTRA 20.5x. Volume leads price action—suggesting there may be funds quietly building positions. I won’t go heavy, but I’ll put them into my observation pool and scan once per day.
My trading judgment:
As for BTC: the 75k to 77.2k range consolidation hasn’t broken yet, so it’s mainly a wait-and-see situation—I won’t chase. If it pulls back to 75k and stabilizes, I’ll test a long with a small position size, with a stop-loss at 74,800.
ETH and SOL are stronger than BTC, but don’t chase highs—wait for a pullback to the 5-day line before considering.
For the top names on the gainers list: keep your distance. The probability of fake breakouts around 78% isn’t something to take lightly.
For the candidates on the slow-climb and stealth leaderboards: add them to the observation pool, don’t take action.
One-sentence summary of today’s market: BTC has no direction but hasn’t broken down. ETH and SOL have seen capital move first, but they still need BTC confirmation. Tomorrow morning, we’ll see whether BTC can hold above 76,500—if it can, I’ll lean bullish; if not, then it’ll likely keep grinding.
Finally, one question for everyone:
Do you think this strength in ETH and SOL is a real start, or just a bull trap?
A. Real start—ETH and SOL lead the charge; the alt season is coming
B. Bull trap—if BTC doesn’t move, it’s just false fire; it’ll come down eventually
C. Can’t tell—best to wait and see
Leave your choice in the comments. See you tomorrow for the next review.