Daily sharing

In Monday’s market analysis, we suggested that the short-term move could form a second leg of a 1h-level rebound, rebounding to around 79,000, and then the third 1h-level decline would break below 76,000. As the short-term situation unfolded as expected, price first rebounded to 79,600 to complete the second-leg rebound, and then fell again to around 75,000, completing the third 1h decline.

Early this morning, the Fed FOMC meeting raised rates by 25 basis points, and while there was a press conference afterward, it still had a somewhat hawkish tone. However, the short-term market reaction was not strong: there was neither a big wick spike down toward 74,000 nor a rapid surge above 77,000. It’s clear that before the rate-hike news was officially released, the market had already priced in the short-term expectations.

The short-term expectation may be to complete a 1-hour level rebound. Watch the 77000 area or around 77600 overhead. After the rebound, it will still fall; I don’t think 74967 is the short-term bottom.

In reality, from a fundamentals perspective, there is basically no support to let BTC just run into a bull market. Does the B Circle itself have any huge fundamental good news? As far as I can see, no. The half-ing narrative is still too early—BTC halves in 2028. Even if the market front-runs it, that would be a 2027 story. In the short term, the only thing considered a clear major positive was a certain bill, but it fell through.

Is there any major positive development in the macro fundamentals? No. One of the big factors back in early 2023 when the market turned from bear to bull was that the Fed’s rate-hike path was basically close to the end, CPI data kept falling, and the market started pricing in expectations of rate cuts. The Fed also began balance-sheet reduction. With that, fundamentals started to support a BTC bull run. I remember that at the time BTC was around 25000, the market basically had a consensus bullish view.

So right now, nobody is even talking about when rate cuts will happen. The Fed’s high interest rates still need to remain at actual levels for a while. The path of abundant macro liquidity is temporarily blocked. Also, up to now, the market still can’t reach a consensus on the bull/bear outlook—there’s huge disagreement. That means the market hasn’t formed a unified bullish force. In the early stage of a bull market, if there isn’t a consistent bullish force, the rise will be rather hard.

So for now, I can’t see any fundamental support for BTC to surge significantly over the next two months—from 65000 to around 80000. The bears are basically almost completely wiped out. For the bulls to strongly hold above 83000 is actually extremely, extremely difficult.

Based on this, personally I’m inclined to keep seeing daily-level selloffs through the end of the month into October. Unless BTC can stand above 79800 and hold that level—then the daily-level selloff thesis would be invalidated.

Mid- to short-term trend direction

4H cycle main direction: The current expectation is the first 4-hour level drop within a daily-level downtrend.

1H cycle direction: In the short term, there may be a 1-hour level rebound to build a trading range/center, and then it would drop again.

BTC short term

Because the short-term market moves quickly, the article can only make predictions about the changes in行情 at the moment it was published. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest market changes; treat this only as a reference.

1H:

1) On the 1-hour level, the third 1-hour level selloff could end around 75000, and then the fourth 1-hour level rebound starts from here.

2) If a 1-hour level rebound plays out, watch 77000 overhead, and around 77600.

3) After the 1-hour level rebound is completed, most likely it will then go into a fifth 1-hour level selloff. The fifth leg should break below 74000. Only by breaking back above 79500 again can you negate the existence of the fifth leg.

4) The next key level is mainly 72941. This is the 0.382 retracement position of the entire daily rebound. If this level is broken down effectively, then it’s basically time for the 60s (tens of thousands) to be seen.

15M:

1) On the 15-minute level, the expectation here is to see a 1-hour level rebound. In that case, the short-term move should be a second 15-minute level pullback. After that pullback, it would then take a third 15-minute level rebound toward the 77000 area or above.

2) Of course, if the short-term pullback breaks below 75350, there’s a chance it will extend further downward that 1-hour level selloff. In that case, the fourth 1-hour level rebound would likely not have played out.

ETH

1) Within the internal structure of ETH’s third 1-hour level selloff, it’s actually not very complete. But there is a rebound here, so for now, we can temporarily consider it as running the fourth 1-hour level rebound.

2) For the fourth 1-hour level rebound, watch the 2460~2500 range. Overall, if it can’t stay above 2540, then most likely there will still be a fifth 1-hour level selloff.

3) For this 4-hour level selloff, focus on whether it can break below 2350 in the coming few days. If it breaks, you can then confirm the daily-level selloff.

4) For the short term, first look for a pullback at the 15-minute level. If the pullback does not break 2394, then there should still be a third 15-minute level rebound. If it breaks, it may continue the selloff from the prior 1-hour level.