Hawkish rate hike delivered! Everyone predicted a waterfall, but the market held up across the board!
Last night, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, taking the interest rate directly to 3.75%-4.00%. The dot plot’s year-end median moved to 4.1%, and in December it’s likely there’ll be another hike. Logically, this should have been a sell-off—so what happened?
The Nasdaq barely fell, while semiconductors actually rose. The ones truly hurt were energy stocks. The market isn’t trading “rate hikes = collapse” right now; it’s trading who can survive in a high-rate environment.
Why didn’t it break? Because U.S. economic data is too strong. Retail sales came in far above expectations, the GDP forecast was even upgraded, and unemployment expectations were revised downward. When the economy is strong, the Fed has even more confidence to keep going.
As for why the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is holding above 5%, Woosh explained it in three points: the economy itself is strong; AI companies are borrowing like crazy to expand and are competing with the government for funding; and geopolitical risks are pushing up the cost of capital. So the key contradiction right now is that AI is driving growth and also pushing rates higher. The stronger the economy, the farther away rate cuts become.
What can truly change the picture next is whether geopolitical tensions can ease. If the situation between Iran and the U.S. cools down quickly, oil prices fall, and inflation pressure is reduced, then rate-hike expectations will loosen—and only then will Bitcoin and U.S. stocks have a chance to strengthen again.
So how should we position next, specifically? Join the chat room for real-time updates.
#萨尔瓦多政府持仓增至7777枚BTC
Last night, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, taking the interest rate directly to 3.75%-4.00%. The dot plot’s year-end median moved to 4.1%, and in December it’s likely there’ll be another hike. Logically, this should have been a sell-off—so what happened?
The Nasdaq barely fell, while semiconductors actually rose. The ones truly hurt were energy stocks. The market isn’t trading “rate hikes = collapse” right now; it’s trading who can survive in a high-rate environment.
Why didn’t it break? Because U.S. economic data is too strong. Retail sales came in far above expectations, the GDP forecast was even upgraded, and unemployment expectations were revised downward. When the economy is strong, the Fed has even more confidence to keep going.
As for why the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is holding above 5%, Woosh explained it in three points: the economy itself is strong; AI companies are borrowing like crazy to expand and are competing with the government for funding; and geopolitical risks are pushing up the cost of capital. So the key contradiction right now is that AI is driving growth and also pushing rates higher. The stronger the economy, the farther away rate cuts become.
What can truly change the picture next is whether geopolitical tensions can ease. If the situation between Iran and the U.S. cools down quickly, oil prices fall, and inflation pressure is reduced, then rate-hike expectations will loosen—and only then will Bitcoin and U.S. stocks have a chance to strengthen again.
So how should we position next, specifically? Join the chat room for real-time updates.
#萨尔瓦多政府持仓增至7777枚BTC
