The Fed just raised its neutral rate estimate to 3.25%, meaning current policy remains restrictive. Yet somehow, not a single FOMC member sees ANY downside risk to GDP growth.
This is precisely when history suggests we should worry about policy mistakes. The Fed's forecasting track record speaks for itself โ they've consistently missed major turning points.
When consensus becomes unanimous and rates stay tight, that's usually the setup for something breaking. Markets price perfection until they don't.
This is precisely when history suggests we should worry about policy mistakes. The Fed's forecasting track record speaks for itself โ they've consistently missed major turning points.
When consensus becomes unanimous and rates stay tight, that's usually the setup for something breaking. Markets price perfection until they don't.
