🚨 The Fed raised rates… but why didn’t BTC and stocks fall?
The Fed raised the rate by 0.25% to 3.75%–4.00%. Usually this weighs on the market, but this time Nasdaq barely changed, and $BTC avoided a big sell-off.
Why?
The key is the dot plot.
The median forecast for the end of the year is ~4.1%. That means another 0.25% hike is possible, but markets are already looking beyond the current decision.
The US economy is still strong:
- Retail sales in August +1.2% m/m
- The Fed raised the GDP growth forecast (2.2% → 2.3%)
- Lowered the unemployment forecast (4.3% → 4.1%)
The economy is handling high rates better than expected.
The main risk:
The yield on 10-year Treasuries is above 5%. Strong growth + AI investment + government debt + geopolitics are preventing the Fed from easing quickly.
What to watch next:
Oil → inflation → yields → geopolitics.
If oil and tensions ease, pressure on inflation will weaken, creating a more comfortable environment for $BTC , altcoins, and stocks.
Main takeaway:
A rate hike ≠ an automatic crash.
The question is how long the economy can withstand high rates and when the Fed can ease policy again.
$NVDA $XAU
The Fed raised the rate by 0.25% to 3.75%–4.00%. Usually this weighs on the market, but this time Nasdaq barely changed, and $BTC avoided a big sell-off.
Why?
The key is the dot plot.
The median forecast for the end of the year is ~4.1%. That means another 0.25% hike is possible, but markets are already looking beyond the current decision.
The US economy is still strong:
- Retail sales in August +1.2% m/m
- The Fed raised the GDP growth forecast (2.2% → 2.3%)
- Lowered the unemployment forecast (4.3% → 4.1%)
The economy is handling high rates better than expected.
The main risk:
The yield on 10-year Treasuries is above 5%. Strong growth + AI investment + government debt + geopolitics are preventing the Fed from easing quickly.
What to watch next:
Oil → inflation → yields → geopolitics.
If oil and tensions ease, pressure on inflation will weaken, creating a more comfortable environment for $BTC , altcoins, and stocks.
Main takeaway:
A rate hike ≠ an automatic crash.
The question is how long the economy can withstand high rates and when the Fed can ease policy again.
$NVDA $XAU