The first thing on the European session open: I checked the Fed first—yep, it really hiked. Twenty-five basis points, pushing the rate up to 3.75%–4.00%, the first time since 2023.
According to the old script, rate hikes are bearish—$BTC should be kneeling. But what happened? The coin price actually held firm, and $ZEC went even harder, surging by 23%.
The logic isn’t complicated: this round of hikes isn’t because the economy is overheating—it’s because the Iran war has driven oil prices to the sky. U.S. diesel spiked to $6.31 per gallon, hitting a record high. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to single digits. Saudi’s oil and gas pipelines were also blown up. This is supply-side inflation, and you can’t suppress it just by raising rates.
So where is the money going? Gold is above $4,300, and $BTC is also being bought as a hard asset. People aren’t buying risk—they’re buying an insurance policy against the erosion of fiat purchasing power.
My take: don’t chase the highs in the short term. Geopolitics can flip on a dime; once the Saudi pipeline is fixed, oil prices should pull back. But the macro narrative has indeed changed—crypto is the first time it’s held up during a rate-hike cycle without collapsing. That, by itself, is a signal.
Hold spot, and keep your hands in check.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #加密货币 #美联储加息 #地缘政治 #Web3
According to the old script, rate hikes are bearish—$BTC should be kneeling. But what happened? The coin price actually held firm, and $ZEC went even harder, surging by 23%.
The logic isn’t complicated: this round of hikes isn’t because the economy is overheating—it’s because the Iran war has driven oil prices to the sky. U.S. diesel spiked to $6.31 per gallon, hitting a record high. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to single digits. Saudi’s oil and gas pipelines were also blown up. This is supply-side inflation, and you can’t suppress it just by raising rates.
So where is the money going? Gold is above $4,300, and $BTC is also being bought as a hard asset. People aren’t buying risk—they’re buying an insurance policy against the erosion of fiat purchasing power.
My take: don’t chase the highs in the short term. Geopolitics can flip on a dime; once the Saudi pipeline is fixed, oil prices should pull back. But the macro narrative has indeed changed—crypto is the first time it’s held up during a rate-hike cycle without collapsing. That, by itself, is a signal.
Hold spot, and keep your hands in check.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #加密货币 #美联储加息 #地缘政治 #Web3