#热点评论美联储会议中规中矩 Tonight’s meeting was 90% consistent with expectations: a 25bp rate hike + another tightening via the dot plot within the year + Wash’s comments contained no substance.
Where it differed from my expectations:
1. I previously thought there was a high chance of another dot-plot hike next year, but the committee vote kept it unchanged—more dovish than I expected. That effectively made this a “preventive” rate hike.
2. They significantly revised up the PCE forecast—higher and for longer. This likely reflects concerns about geopolitical uncertainty. Whether Trump will, and whether the US can reach a peace deal between the US and Iran—the takeaway is that the next leg of global markets will hinge mainly on geopolitics and oil prices. These are the key contradictions.
3. Wash’s remarks did not mention “preventive” rate hikes at all—he’s still too young, can’t handle the Greenspan style of phrasing, and chose the safest expression: “no comment,” providing no guidance. Even if he’d said a bit more for another minute, markets would have sold off more for another minute. Honestly, this guy really isn’t liked.
In summary, I think the meeting was fairly in line, achieving the “preventive rate hike” effect.
Tonight’s global market performance: gold/pancakes were steady; US stocks fell first then rebounded, while the dollar and US Treasury yields rose.
Gold/pancakes aren’t afraid of rate hikes. US stocks are underpriced but supported by earnings—falling first is actually a dip and there should be a rebound.
But the Treasury issue can’t be resolved, and yields will keep falling.
This was a meeting fully consistent with expectations.
Next, I’m looking for US stocks to plunge into a deep pit, with gold/pancakes gradually recovering. There’s no need for A-shares to be pessimistic; after a decisive flush, there’s a chance to build a bottom.
Where it differed from my expectations:
1. I previously thought there was a high chance of another dot-plot hike next year, but the committee vote kept it unchanged—more dovish than I expected. That effectively made this a “preventive” rate hike.
2. They significantly revised up the PCE forecast—higher and for longer. This likely reflects concerns about geopolitical uncertainty. Whether Trump will, and whether the US can reach a peace deal between the US and Iran—the takeaway is that the next leg of global markets will hinge mainly on geopolitics and oil prices. These are the key contradictions.
3. Wash’s remarks did not mention “preventive” rate hikes at all—he’s still too young, can’t handle the Greenspan style of phrasing, and chose the safest expression: “no comment,” providing no guidance. Even if he’d said a bit more for another minute, markets would have sold off more for another minute. Honestly, this guy really isn’t liked.
In summary, I think the meeting was fairly in line, achieving the “preventive rate hike” effect.
Tonight’s global market performance: gold/pancakes were steady; US stocks fell first then rebounded, while the dollar and US Treasury yields rose.
Gold/pancakes aren’t afraid of rate hikes. US stocks are underpriced but supported by earnings—falling first is actually a dip and there should be a rebound.
But the Treasury issue can’t be resolved, and yields will keep falling.
This was a meeting fully consistent with expectations.
Next, I’m looking for US stocks to plunge into a deep pit, with gold/pancakes gradually recovering. There’s no need for A-shares to be pessimistic; after a decisive flush, there’s a chance to build a bottom.