With Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro series set for an official launch this Friday, as pre-orders fell short of expectations, GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu lowered the production forecast to 72 million units.
Key points
Jeff Pu, “mild” evaluation of iPhone 18 Pro pre-order wait times… production outlook cut to 72 million units.
JPMorgan analyzes that the global delivery lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max have shortened compared to last year.
The iPhone 18 Pro ships from $1,199, and the foldable “iPhone Duo” opens for pre-orders on October 16.
Jeff Pu cuts iPhone production outlook to 72 million units
In a report he released on Tuesday, Wedbush described the iPhone 18 Pro pre-order wait time as “lukewarm” and lowered his outlook. He said the limited scope of hardware upgrades and, in particular, the price increases for high-capacity storage models have constrained demand. Wedbush’s investment view remains at “Hold,” with a target price of $369.
In the U.S. market, most iPhone 18 Pro Max configurations with 256GB and 512GB see their delivery wait times increase to about 3 to 4 weeks, while many of the smaller Pro models have enough configurations that they can be delivered on the release date itself. By color this year, Burgundy was the most popular, and among the four finishes, Silver drew the least interest.
The iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199, and the Pro Max starts at $1,299, with the 2TB model rising to $2,499. Wedbush lowered its combined production outlook for the two models to 72 million units, citing production constraints related to the introduction of a variable aperture (variable aperture) camera.
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JP Morgan: “Lead times are shorter than for iPhone 17.”
Wall Street brokerage firms tracked a trend this year of shorter iPhone 18 Pro delivery wait times compared with last year, but interpretations differ regarding what’s behind it. An analyst team led by JP Morgan’s **Samik Chatterjee** analyzed that the average in-home delivery wait time for the iPhone 18 Pro worldwide is 7 days, while the Pro Max is 19 days. Last year, iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max were 15 days and 24 days, respectively, with particularly large decreases in China. In China, lead times that had soared to as many as 30 days for both models last year fell sharply this year to 13 days and 21 days.
In the U.S. market, which accounts for about 34% of global iPhone shipments, the iPhone 18 Pro’s lead time was cut from 4 days last year to 2 days, while the Pro Max edged up slightly from 21 days to 22 days. In an investment note, Chatterjee pointed out that consumers may be more likely to put off purchases—especially in China—while waiting for the foldable “Duo.”
Foldable “iPhone Duo” clouding the read on Pro demand
Chatterjee warned that this fall, Apple’s decision to skip the base iPhone makes it difficult to directly compare the supply allocation structure with past cycles. Meanwhile, in a separate report, Wedbush lowered its 2026 sales outlook for the foldable duo from 7 million units to 6 million units. The reason cited was production disruptions related to the hinge structure, but Chatterjee still expects the duo, which will begin pre-orders on October 16 for $1,999, to absorb some of the demand for the Pro Max.
When 30 minutes had passed since pre-orders for the iPhone 18 Pro line-up were opened on September 12, none of the full iPhone 18 Pro models in the United States showed any delays. It was an unusual sight not often seen with recent iPhone new products. However, as of September 14, the scheduled delivery dates for most models started slipping to late September to October, and the Pro Max is being guided to between October 6 and 13.
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