Trump calls for rate cuts, but the Federal Reserve insists on raising rates. And it was an 11-to-0 unanimous decision—16 of the 18 officials are still expected to have another rate hike within the year. Starting with 25 basis points is just the opening move.
The market had already bet early: the probability of a rate hike before the meeting was 92.5%, and the chances of two rate hikes before year-end are close to 80%. The median in the dot plot points to 4.1%, noticeably firmer than the 3.8% expected in June. While Waller says it’s just a “fine adjustment,” his subordinates’ votes are telling a different story: at least one more time is coming. Either the hawks can’t be restrained, or he never intended to restrain them in the first place.
What’s interesting is that after the rate hike was delivered, BTC surged to 76,000, ETH rose above 2,400, and gold didn’t crash either. The market isn’t reacting to this specific rate hike—it’s reacting to the dot plot. This one isn’t scary; what’s scary is the one hiding later.
Waller has no room to retreat. With August CPI coming in hotter than expected, he had already left himself little wiggle room—refusing to raise rates would basically destroy his credibility. The decision landed seven weeks before the midterm election. Trump has been calling for rate cuts since 2025, and this year he even directly demanded a cut to 1%. An 11-to-0 unanimous rate hike is like a direct refusal to his face. The White House said it was “regrettable,” while Trump said “it should be cut to 1%.” Ironically, that actually earns points for Waller—showing he isn’t a puppet on a string.
Long-end U.S. Treasury yields already broke above 5%. The 10-year note closed at 5.00%, the highest since 2007. The U.S. Dollar Index broke above 100; gold was pressured but didn’t collapse. China’s central bank has also been adding to holdings for 22 consecutive months, helping to hold the line. Oil is the biggest variable: Brent rose about 15% in September, but fell 2.9% on the day of the decision. As oil prices pull back, inflation gets a chance to catch its breath; if oil stays high, the hawks keep their ammunition.
Once the Fed hikes, the whole world has to move with it. Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority raised its base rate on September 17 to 4.25%—an automatic response under the linked exchange rate system. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman also increased rates by 25 basis points that evening. Waller’s line about “other developed economies also facing price pressure” essentially means: I moved, so you deal with it.
Next, watch three things: whether the October meeting can actually deliver the second rate hike; whether employment data (Nonfarm Payrolls), CPI, and core PCE can hold up; and Brent crude prices and Holmun’s Strait navigation volume. The dot-plot answer is already out—now the verification period begins.
In one sentence: bad news is priced in and turns into good news—there can’t be a more bearish message than this. So assets are rising!
#美众院推进比特币储备法案
The market had already bet early: the probability of a rate hike before the meeting was 92.5%, and the chances of two rate hikes before year-end are close to 80%. The median in the dot plot points to 4.1%, noticeably firmer than the 3.8% expected in June. While Waller says it’s just a “fine adjustment,” his subordinates’ votes are telling a different story: at least one more time is coming. Either the hawks can’t be restrained, or he never intended to restrain them in the first place.
What’s interesting is that after the rate hike was delivered, BTC surged to 76,000, ETH rose above 2,400, and gold didn’t crash either. The market isn’t reacting to this specific rate hike—it’s reacting to the dot plot. This one isn’t scary; what’s scary is the one hiding later.
Waller has no room to retreat. With August CPI coming in hotter than expected, he had already left himself little wiggle room—refusing to raise rates would basically destroy his credibility. The decision landed seven weeks before the midterm election. Trump has been calling for rate cuts since 2025, and this year he even directly demanded a cut to 1%. An 11-to-0 unanimous rate hike is like a direct refusal to his face. The White House said it was “regrettable,” while Trump said “it should be cut to 1%.” Ironically, that actually earns points for Waller—showing he isn’t a puppet on a string.
Long-end U.S. Treasury yields already broke above 5%. The 10-year note closed at 5.00%, the highest since 2007. The U.S. Dollar Index broke above 100; gold was pressured but didn’t collapse. China’s central bank has also been adding to holdings for 22 consecutive months, helping to hold the line. Oil is the biggest variable: Brent rose about 15% in September, but fell 2.9% on the day of the decision. As oil prices pull back, inflation gets a chance to catch its breath; if oil stays high, the hawks keep their ammunition.
Once the Fed hikes, the whole world has to move with it. Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority raised its base rate on September 17 to 4.25%—an automatic response under the linked exchange rate system. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman also increased rates by 25 basis points that evening. Waller’s line about “other developed economies also facing price pressure” essentially means: I moved, so you deal with it.
Next, watch three things: whether the October meeting can actually deliver the second rate hike; whether employment data (Nonfarm Payrolls), CPI, and core PCE can hold up; and Brent crude prices and Holmun’s Strait navigation volume. The dot-plot answer is already out—now the verification period begins.
In one sentence: bad news is priced in and turns into good news—there can’t be a more bearish message than this. So assets are rising!
#美众院推进比特币储备法案
