The Fed raises rates by 25 basis points; the White House calls for rate cuts, but it refuses to. Passed unanimously 12 to 0—first time in three years. Of the 18 officials, 16 are expected to hike again within the year—25 basis points is just the opening act.
What’s interesting is that after the rate hike takes effect, BTC surged to 76,000, ETH climbed above 2,400, ZEC is also racing toward 1,400, SOL hit 100, and gold didn’t drop. The market isn’t looking at this rate hike—it’s looking at the dot plot. The median points straight to 4.1%, even tougher than Goldman Sachs’ forecast. Waller says “refinements,” but the votes from his side tell him: at least one more time. Either he can’t control the hawks, or he simply doesn’t want to.
The market reaction is very honest: stocks didn’t crash or go wild—Dow is up slightly, the S&P 500 is up 0.32%, and the Nasdaq is up 0.67%. Traders read it clearly: this move isn’t scary; what’s scary is that there’s still another one hiding ahead.
Waller has no way back. August CPI came in hotter than expected. He had already put his words out there—if he doesn’t hike, it would destroy his credibility. And the decision landed seven weeks before the midterm elections. Trump has been calling for rate cuts since 2025, and this year he even directly demanded cutting to 1%. A unanimous 12–0 hike is like a direct rejection to his face. The White House says “regret,” and Trump calls for “cutting to 1%”—but that actually adds points to Waller, proving he isn’t a puppet.
The long-end U.S. Treasury yields have already broken 5%. The 10-year yield closed at 5.00%, the highest since 2007. The market priced in the tightening in advance, so when the hike actually happened, there was almost no additional move. The U.S. dollar index broke above 100; gold is being pressured but hasn’t collapsed. China’s central bank has been adding to gold for 22 straight months to hold the line. Oil is the biggest variable: Brent jumped about 15% in September, but fell 2.9% on the day of the decision. As oil prices pull back, inflation gets to catch its breath; if oil stays high, the hawks keep ammunition.
Next, watch three things: whether the October meeting can deliver the second rate hike; whether nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and core PCE can hold up; and Brent oil prices and the volume of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The dot plot’s answer is already out—now the verification period begins.
#点阵图预示2026年再加息一次
What’s interesting is that after the rate hike takes effect, BTC surged to 76,000, ETH climbed above 2,400, ZEC is also racing toward 1,400, SOL hit 100, and gold didn’t drop. The market isn’t looking at this rate hike—it’s looking at the dot plot. The median points straight to 4.1%, even tougher than Goldman Sachs’ forecast. Waller says “refinements,” but the votes from his side tell him: at least one more time. Either he can’t control the hawks, or he simply doesn’t want to.
The market reaction is very honest: stocks didn’t crash or go wild—Dow is up slightly, the S&P 500 is up 0.32%, and the Nasdaq is up 0.67%. Traders read it clearly: this move isn’t scary; what’s scary is that there’s still another one hiding ahead.
Waller has no way back. August CPI came in hotter than expected. He had already put his words out there—if he doesn’t hike, it would destroy his credibility. And the decision landed seven weeks before the midterm elections. Trump has been calling for rate cuts since 2025, and this year he even directly demanded cutting to 1%. A unanimous 12–0 hike is like a direct rejection to his face. The White House says “regret,” and Trump calls for “cutting to 1%”—but that actually adds points to Waller, proving he isn’t a puppet.
The long-end U.S. Treasury yields have already broken 5%. The 10-year yield closed at 5.00%, the highest since 2007. The market priced in the tightening in advance, so when the hike actually happened, there was almost no additional move. The U.S. dollar index broke above 100; gold is being pressured but hasn’t collapsed. China’s central bank has been adding to gold for 22 straight months to hold the line. Oil is the biggest variable: Brent jumped about 15% in September, but fell 2.9% on the day of the decision. As oil prices pull back, inflation gets to catch its breath; if oil stays high, the hawks keep ammunition.
Next, watch three things: whether the October meeting can deliver the second rate hike; whether nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and core PCE can hold up; and Brent oil prices and the volume of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The dot plot’s answer is already out—now the verification period begins.
#点阵图预示2026年再加息一次
