After the rate hike in the early morning, BTC and U.S. stocks have been jumping up and down—what are derivatives traders supposed to do? This rate hike itself isn’t unexpected; what truly needs attention is the future path of interest rates.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate up to 3.75%–4%. This is the first rate hike since 2023, and it was approved unanimously by all 12 votes.
The latest dot plot shows the median year-end rate rising to 4.1%, which implies that there is likely still at least one more hike before year’s end. More importantly, the expected rate for 2027 was also revised upward from 3.6% to 4.1%.
Why dare to keep hiking?
Because the U.S. economy hasn’t shown clear signs of weakening. The Fed raised its forecast for this year’s GDP growth to 2.3% and lowered its unemployment rate forecast to 4.1%; however, August CPI year-over-year is still 3.4%, and PPI is even at 5.4%. If the economy can hold up and inflation can’t be brought down, then the Fed has no reason to stop in a hurry.
Right now, I think $76,000 is an important level. Recently, the support has been consistently around $76,000, and the current price has also been consolidating around that area. The blue line in the chart marks $76,000—you can keep an eye on it.
Keep observing.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate up to 3.75%–4%. This is the first rate hike since 2023, and it was approved unanimously by all 12 votes.
The latest dot plot shows the median year-end rate rising to 4.1%, which implies that there is likely still at least one more hike before year’s end. More importantly, the expected rate for 2027 was also revised upward from 3.6% to 4.1%.
Why dare to keep hiking?
Because the U.S. economy hasn’t shown clear signs of weakening. The Fed raised its forecast for this year’s GDP growth to 2.3% and lowered its unemployment rate forecast to 4.1%; however, August CPI year-over-year is still 3.4%, and PPI is even at 5.4%. If the economy can hold up and inflation can’t be brought down, then the Fed has no reason to stop in a hurry.
Right now, I think $76,000 is an important level. Recently, the support has been consistently around $76,000, and the current price has also been consolidating around that area. The blue line in the chart marks $76,000—you can keep an eye on it.
Keep observing.
