The Fed decision is out: it raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. Out of 18 votes, 12–0 unanimously passed. This is the first rate hike since 2023. What’s even more surprising than the hike itself is the dot plot—out of 18 officials, 16 believe there will be another rate hike before year-end, and 4 even think there should be two more hikes. They’re much more hawkish than everyone expected.

The market reaction is quite interesting: $BTC isn’t down—it’s up, +0.41% to $76,130. $ETH is up even more, +0.81% to $2,418. It’s the typical “the shoe drops” move—after all, it had already sold off enough in the preceding days. As for the gold-backed token $PAXG , it’s basically flat at $4,296. The earlier run-up driven by safe-haven premium has largely been given back.

But with the hawkishness this strong, this rally looks more like catching one’s breath rather than letting your guard down. Over the next few weeks, what the officials say will be the real highlight. #FedRateWatch