On the early morning of September 17, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve finally took action.

After three years, the Fed once again announced a 25-basis-point rate hike, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%—4.00%.

This is the first rate hike since July 2023.

But one thing needs to be noted: this rate hike itself is not really unexpected.

Previously, the market had already priced in a fairly full rate hike in September. So what’s truly worth watching is not these 25 basis points themselves, but whether the Fed will continue tightening monetary policy next.

When the rate hike lands, the market is actually not as panicked as people imagined.

After the announcement, Bitcoin did not immediately plunge; instead, it traded sideways around $75,000.

That’s actually easy to understand.

Once something has already been anticipated by the market, what’s announced can ironically trigger “bad news already priced in.”

Now the market is more concerned with this: Is this just a single rate hike, or the start of a new round of rate-hike cycle?

If it’s only a one-time policy adjustment, the impact on risk assets may be limited.

But if there are additional consecutive rate hikes afterward, then the situation is completely different.

16 officials expect more rate hikes this year

This is what’s especially worth noting about this meeting.

The latest forecasts show that among 18 policymakers, 16 expect at least one more rate hike before the end of this year.

That is to say, the signals the Fed released are not “rate hikes are over,” but instead still leave room for further tightening policies.

Naturally, this is not a very easy environment for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Because the higher the interest rate, the higher the cost of capital, and market expectations for liquidity will change accordingly.

What exactly does Bitcoin really need to watch out for?

I think, in the short term, what really needs attention is not the “25-basis-point rate hike” itself.

It’s actually three things:

The U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and the next Fed meeting.

After this meeting, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and yields on short-term U.S. Treasuries rose noticeably. The market began to reprice the expected path of future interest rates.

If the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen and Treasury yields continue to rise, while the Fed continues to deliver hawkish signals, then the pressure on Bitcoin could increase further.

On the contrary, if inflation cools noticeably later on, and the Fed does not continue raising rates, easing market concerns about liquidity, then the crypto market may regain some breathing room.

So will this rate hike crush Bitcoin?

It’s still too early to draw such a simple conclusion.

The 25 basis points themselves are not the only factor that determines Bitcoin’s rise or fall, and this hike had already been digested to a large degree by the market.

What’s truly worth being wary of is** “one rate hike” turning into “a sustained cycle of rate hikes.”**

For the crypto market, interest rates are only the surface. What truly affects prices behind the scenes is capital and liquidity.

So next, whether Bitcoin keeps searching for support downward or re-strengthens, the market may need to wait for the Fed’s next policy signal.

This time, perhaps the rate hike itself is no longer the key issue.

What really matters is:

Will the Fed tell the market—there’s more to come.#BTC