$BR This 15m just dropped straight through 15 points. Trading volume hit more than 6x the usual level. The Z-score is 12.6—this is #1 in the whole pool for abnormal activity, and the nominal change is also in the top three.
What’s interesting is that OI didn’t rise along with it—in fact, on 15m it shrank 0.47%, and on 1h the nominal dropped by nearly 12 million U. Price fell and OI fell too; this isn’t shorting opening new positions. It’s a cascading chain reaction of longs being liquidated, cutting losses, and deleveraging.
The funding rate is still in the high percentile recently, which suggests the longs were already squeezed to the max; now it’s just liquidation/clearing. Into the close, price has broken through the lower bounds of roughly the last 20 5m candles. The passive buys vs sells are 0.94, so sell pressure isn’t especially ferocious, but the buy-side support is weaker.
Don’t rush to bottom-pick with this kind of structure. Wait for OI to stabilize and the funding rate to return to neutral before looking again. As long as leverage hasn’t been fully cleared, any rebound is basically sending liquidity to the shorts.
What’s interesting is that OI didn’t rise along with it—in fact, on 15m it shrank 0.47%, and on 1h the nominal dropped by nearly 12 million U. Price fell and OI fell too; this isn’t shorting opening new positions. It’s a cascading chain reaction of longs being liquidated, cutting losses, and deleveraging.
The funding rate is still in the high percentile recently, which suggests the longs were already squeezed to the max; now it’s just liquidation/clearing. Into the close, price has broken through the lower bounds of roughly the last 20 5m candles. The passive buys vs sells are 0.94, so sell pressure isn’t especially ferocious, but the buy-side support is weaker.
Don’t rush to bottom-pick with this kind of structure. Wait for OI to stabilize and the funding rate to return to neutral before looking again. As long as leverage hasn’t been fully cleared, any rebound is basically sending liquidity to the shorts.