No surprises: the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points, and after the decision, the probability of a hike in October rises to 50%.

Stay tuned—the Trump keeps “verbal dueling” on Truth, demanding that interest rates be “cut to 1% or lower.”

But what’s really draining people is the long end: the 10-year yield is 5.01%, the 30-year is 5.35%, and 30-year mortgages are creeping up toward 7%—back in February of this year before the action started, they were at 6%.

Wosch says there are three reasons bond yields are rising: the economy is strong, capital competition—i.e., AI is grabbing money—and geopolitics.

What’s interesting is that none of these seems to be something rate hikes can fix. And is it really all Trump’s doing?