Post
--
生蚝哥Oyster
·
--
September 17｜The Fed hikes rates again after three years, sparking a hawkish shock in the market
At the Fed FOMC meeting, all members voted in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike. The target range for the federal funds rate has been raised to 3.75%‑4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023.
The latest dot plot sends a clear signal: 16 officials believe there is a high probability of another rate hike within 2026. The median rate expectations for 2026 and 2027 remain at 4.1%.
After the meeting, Fed Chair Waller said the current U.S. economy and employment market are still very resilient, but the stubborn inflation problem has yet to be resolved. He noted that the committee has not yet seen convincing evidence that inflation is steadily moving back down toward the 2% target. He also said plainly that the key contradiction now is not economic growth, but persistently high inflation.
Regarding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, Waller attributed it to three main factors: the strength of the U.S. economy, intensifying competition for capital, and geopolitical risk. While he did not directly comment on the U.S.-Iran conflict, he acknowledged that the geopolitical situation is reshaping economic assessments.
During the decision and press-conference phase, the market reaction was quite intense: spot gold briefly plunged by nearly $100; the U.S. dollar index surged by 40 points and climbed above the 100 level; the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 10 bps, and the 10-year yield increased by 5 bps, with equities across the board turning lower.
Rate-futures are being repriced: the market now expects a total of about 33 bps more rate hikes within 2026, up by 6 bps compared with before the decision. By next June, market pricing implies additional room for rate hikes totaling 75 bps, equivalent to three more 25-bp hikes.
At the Fed FOMC meeting, all members voted in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike. The target range for the federal funds rate has been raised to 3.75%‑4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023.
The latest dot plot sends a clear signal: 16 officials believe there is a high probability of another rate hike within 2026. The median rate expectations for 2026 and 2027 remain at 4.1%.
After the meeting, Fed Chair Waller said the current U.S. economy and employment market are still very resilient, but the stubborn inflation problem has yet to be resolved. He noted that the committee has not yet seen convincing evidence that inflation is steadily moving back down toward the 2% target. He also said plainly that the key contradiction now is not economic growth, but persistently high inflation.
Regarding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, Waller attributed it to three main factors: the strength of the U.S. economy, intensifying competition for capital, and geopolitical risk. While he did not directly comment on the U.S.-Iran conflict, he acknowledged that the geopolitical situation is reshaping economic assessments.
During the decision and press-conference phase, the market reaction was quite intense: spot gold briefly plunged by nearly $100; the U.S. dollar index surged by 40 points and climbed above the 100 level; the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 10 bps, and the 10-year yield increased by 5 bps, with equities across the board turning lower.
Rate-futures are being repriced: the market now expects a total of about 33 bps more rate hikes within 2026, up by 6 bps compared with before the decision. By next June, market pricing implies additional room for rate hikes totaling 75 bps, equivalent to three more 25-bp hikes.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.