#美联储加息25基点美股收跌
The Fed’s first rate hike in three years: what the market fears is that these 25 bps may just be the start
The Fed’s first rate hike in three years—25 basis points—sent the S&P down 1% and the Nasdaq down 0.7%. But the market had already priced in these 25 bps. What truly makes investors frown is this: the Fed has started putting “continuing to raise rates” back on the table. Sixteen officials believe there will be at least one more hike before year-end, and the year-end rate forecast has risen to 4%–4.25%.
More troubling is what Warsh said very plainly: the problem is inflation—and inflation has been too high for too long. Oil prices, energy costs, and fiscal pressure all make it difficult for inflation to return quickly to 2%. So the market is no longer just calculating “a 25 bp hike today”; it’s now pricing how long this tightening cycle will last.
The crypto market has already taken a hit. $BTC fell from above $82,000 to around $75,000–$76,000, while on September 15, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw daily outflows of about $450 million. The CLARITY Act being blocked has coincided with this—at the same time—so risk capital has faced two consecutive missed expectations.
Right now, I’m more inclined to define this pullback as a repricing of expectations, not just a “rate-hike bearish” move. Once the 25 bps are delivered, it’s actually less scary than people think. The real danger is that the probability of additional hikes in October and December keeps rising. If later inflation and oil prices can’t be brought down, the market will have to keep repricing higher interest rates. Conversely, as soon as inflation starts to ease, this rate hike could turn out to be a one-time bearish catalyst.
The Fed’s first rate hike in three years: what the market fears is that these 25 bps may just be the start
The Fed’s first rate hike in three years—25 basis points—sent the S&P down 1% and the Nasdaq down 0.7%. But the market had already priced in these 25 bps. What truly makes investors frown is this: the Fed has started putting “continuing to raise rates” back on the table. Sixteen officials believe there will be at least one more hike before year-end, and the year-end rate forecast has risen to 4%–4.25%.
More troubling is what Warsh said very plainly: the problem is inflation—and inflation has been too high for too long. Oil prices, energy costs, and fiscal pressure all make it difficult for inflation to return quickly to 2%. So the market is no longer just calculating “a 25 bp hike today”; it’s now pricing how long this tightening cycle will last.
The crypto market has already taken a hit. $BTC fell from above $82,000 to around $75,000–$76,000, while on September 15, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw daily outflows of about $450 million. The CLARITY Act being blocked has coincided with this—at the same time—so risk capital has faced two consecutive missed expectations.
Right now, I’m more inclined to define this pullback as a repricing of expectations, not just a “rate-hike bearish” move. Once the 25 bps are delivered, it’s actually less scary than people think. The real danger is that the probability of additional hikes in October and December keeps rising. If later inflation and oil prices can’t be brought down, the market will have to keep repricing higher interest rates. Conversely, as soon as inflation starts to ease, this rate hike could turn out to be a one-time bearish catalyst.