It is 2:00 a.m. Beijing time today—when the Fed’s shoe finally drops: it hikes rates by 25 bps and lifts the rate to 3.75%—4.00%
12–0, unanimous
This is the first shot since July 2023, and also the first shot after Waller took office
In August, core CPI came in month-on-month at +0.3%, beating expectations. Ahead of the meeting, the CME priced in a move to 96% at one point—so whether they “hike or not” has never been the question. The real question is whether this cut is a period (a full stop) or a comma
The dot plot answers it: out of 18 officials, 16 think there will be another hike within the year. Waller’s quote is even harsher: “Inflation is too high, and it’s been persistent for too long.”
In plain human terms: the market wanted to hear “a precautionary rate hike,” and he just told you this is episode one of a series
The transmission chain is short: hawkish dot plot → U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both rise → high-valuation assets get hit
Last night already played it out once: the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5%, the U.S. Dollar Index jumped over 100, and the Dow fell 1.21%. BTC wobbled between 75,000 and 76,500, then settled around 75,600—one-off damage was limited, but the real pressure is in December
Gold had it worst: $XAUT , it lost 4,250 and once pulled back more than $100 from the intraday high. Hikes lift real yields—assets without yield get bled first
My take: in the short term, be cautious and bearish on $BTC and tech stocks, but don’t chase shorts. The real “decider” is the December set of numbers: CME shows a 50% probability of another cumulative 25 bps hike by December, and a 39% probability of topping up the full 50 bps
If they only hike once in December and stop there, that’s the “bad news already done” gold pit. If they hike two times in a row, then the first wave of rebound is just an escape wave. I’m actually more bullish on gold in the medium term—because inflation hasn’t died; it’s the only long call option in this whole chaotic fight
Strategy stays the same: don’t bet on direction—bet on survival. Zero out leverage, cut position size in half, and wait until the December policy meeting to get back in the game. After today, there are only two kinds of people: those who’ve seen through the dot plot, and those still asking “why did it fall even after they hiked?”
Remember: a single rate hike is noise—a whole cycle is the signal. Manage your position size; it’s always more important than trying to judge direction
#点阵图预示2026年再加息一次 #美联储加息25基点美股收跌 #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币ETF净流出4.5亿美元
12–0, unanimous
This is the first shot since July 2023, and also the first shot after Waller took office
In August, core CPI came in month-on-month at +0.3%, beating expectations. Ahead of the meeting, the CME priced in a move to 96% at one point—so whether they “hike or not” has never been the question. The real question is whether this cut is a period (a full stop) or a comma
The dot plot answers it: out of 18 officials, 16 think there will be another hike within the year. Waller’s quote is even harsher: “Inflation is too high, and it’s been persistent for too long.”
In plain human terms: the market wanted to hear “a precautionary rate hike,” and he just told you this is episode one of a series
The transmission chain is short: hawkish dot plot → U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both rise → high-valuation assets get hit
Last night already played it out once: the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5%, the U.S. Dollar Index jumped over 100, and the Dow fell 1.21%. BTC wobbled between 75,000 and 76,500, then settled around 75,600—one-off damage was limited, but the real pressure is in December
Gold had it worst: $XAUT , it lost 4,250 and once pulled back more than $100 from the intraday high. Hikes lift real yields—assets without yield get bled first
My take: in the short term, be cautious and bearish on $BTC and tech stocks, but don’t chase shorts. The real “decider” is the December set of numbers: CME shows a 50% probability of another cumulative 25 bps hike by December, and a 39% probability of topping up the full 50 bps
If they only hike once in December and stop there, that’s the “bad news already done” gold pit. If they hike two times in a row, then the first wave of rebound is just an escape wave. I’m actually more bullish on gold in the medium term—because inflation hasn’t died; it’s the only long call option in this whole chaotic fight
Strategy stays the same: don’t bet on direction—bet on survival. Zero out leverage, cut position size in half, and wait until the December policy meeting to get back in the game. After today, there are only two kinds of people: those who’ve seen through the dot plot, and those still asking “why did it fall even after they hiked?”
Remember: a single rate hike is noise—a whole cycle is the signal. Manage your position size; it’s always more important than trying to judge direction
#点阵图预示2026年再加息一次 #美联储加息25基点美股收跌 #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币ETF净流出4.5亿美元
