#美联储加息是否已成定局
The rate hike is already here—what is crypto really supposed to watch out for?
For a long time, the market has been debating whether the Fed would raise rates in September. Now the answer is out.
In the early hours of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point hike, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%, and this time it was approved unanimously, 12–0.
So discussing whether it will happen in September no longer matters.
What is really worth paying attention to is: is this hike a one-off?
Judging from the latest dot plot, the outlook isn’t optimistic.
Fed officials currently expect the midpoint of the rate range to be around 4.1% by the end of 2026, which means the market needs to consider the possibility of further hikes within the year. A Reuters report shows that of 19 officials, 16 expect at least one more rate hike in 2026.
Why suddenly so hawkish?
The core reason is still inflation.
The Fed’s latest projections show that its 2026 PCE inflation forecast has been raised to 3.7%, well above the 2% long-term target. At the same time, economic activity in the U.S. remains resilient—consumption and capital investment have not shown clear signs of slowing sharply.
What does this mean for crypto?
In short: expectations for easier liquidity have been pushed further out.
Previously, the market was pricing in rate cuts—plus hopes for improving liquidity. But now the Fed hasn’t just refrained from cutting; it has actually hiked again and also signaled the possibility of additional tightening.
Under this kind of environment, while BTC has increasingly taken on the characteristics of a macro asset, in the short term it’s still very easily affected by the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and risk appetite.
ETH and other high-beta altcoins may be hit even more, because when risk appetite falls, high-volatility assets are usually the first to be affected.
However, there’s another issue that’s easy to overlook:
The rate hike itself may already have been priced in by the market.
What will truly determine the next leg of the market isn’t “they raised rates by 25 bps this time,” but whether the Fed will continue to hike from here, and whether inflation and employment data will continue to support further hikes.
So don’t interpret it simply as: “Fed rate hike = crypto must fall.”
If subsequent inflation data starts to clearly cool, and if employment and the broader economy also show signs of slowing, the Fed’s room to keep hiking could be constrained.
The rate hike is already here—what is crypto really supposed to watch out for?
For a long time, the market has been debating whether the Fed would raise rates in September. Now the answer is out.
In the early hours of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point hike, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%, and this time it was approved unanimously, 12–0.
So discussing whether it will happen in September no longer matters.
What is really worth paying attention to is: is this hike a one-off?
Judging from the latest dot plot, the outlook isn’t optimistic.
Fed officials currently expect the midpoint of the rate range to be around 4.1% by the end of 2026, which means the market needs to consider the possibility of further hikes within the year. A Reuters report shows that of 19 officials, 16 expect at least one more rate hike in 2026.
Why suddenly so hawkish?
The core reason is still inflation.
The Fed’s latest projections show that its 2026 PCE inflation forecast has been raised to 3.7%, well above the 2% long-term target. At the same time, economic activity in the U.S. remains resilient—consumption and capital investment have not shown clear signs of slowing sharply.
What does this mean for crypto?
In short: expectations for easier liquidity have been pushed further out.
Previously, the market was pricing in rate cuts—plus hopes for improving liquidity. But now the Fed hasn’t just refrained from cutting; it has actually hiked again and also signaled the possibility of additional tightening.
Under this kind of environment, while BTC has increasingly taken on the characteristics of a macro asset, in the short term it’s still very easily affected by the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and risk appetite.
ETH and other high-beta altcoins may be hit even more, because when risk appetite falls, high-volatility assets are usually the first to be affected.
However, there’s another issue that’s easy to overlook:
The rate hike itself may already have been priced in by the market.
What will truly determine the next leg of the market isn’t “they raised rates by 25 bps this time,” but whether the Fed will continue to hike from here, and whether inflation and employment data will continue to support further hikes.
So don’t interpret it simply as: “Fed rate hike = crypto must fall.”
If subsequent inflation data starts to clearly cool, and if employment and the broader economy also show signs of slowing, the Fed’s room to keep hiking could be constrained.