9.17 Early Morning: The Fed Restarts Rate Hikes After Three Years; Gold Spikes Then Falls Back
The Fed began its first rate hike since July 2023. The U.S. dollar index surged sharply, gold plunged, and it was completely in line with our expectations. Before the hike, gold lured people into chasing, leading many bottom-buyers to once again see a glimmer of hope for a rebound. However, the outcome was far from satisfactory. With the Fed’s rate-hike “shoe” finally landing, the dot plot suggested that tightening would continue later this year. Gold once fell more than $130 from its intraday high.
On the 1-hour timeframe: after pushing up to the earlier 4366 high, a rapid series of large bearish candles triggered a sell-off. It dipped to a low of 4235 to complete a round of fast pullback. Then, from that low, it launched a rebound to repair the decline—this is a retaliatory rebound after a big drop and has not yet reversed the short-term bearish structure. The key thing to watch is whether it can hold the 4320 level. If it can’t break down and hold above, we can still look for a spike-and-fall scenario; if it successfully holds above, then we can expect further rebound potential.
Trading suggestion: Sell 4315–4330, place the stop-loss above 4340. Target 4230.
(Individual guidance for reference only—everything depends on real-time trading.)#XAU $XAU
The Fed began its first rate hike since July 2023. The U.S. dollar index surged sharply, gold plunged, and it was completely in line with our expectations. Before the hike, gold lured people into chasing, leading many bottom-buyers to once again see a glimmer of hope for a rebound. However, the outcome was far from satisfactory. With the Fed’s rate-hike “shoe” finally landing, the dot plot suggested that tightening would continue later this year. Gold once fell more than $130 from its intraday high.
On the 1-hour timeframe: after pushing up to the earlier 4366 high, a rapid series of large bearish candles triggered a sell-off. It dipped to a low of 4235 to complete a round of fast pullback. Then, from that low, it launched a rebound to repair the decline—this is a retaliatory rebound after a big drop and has not yet reversed the short-term bearish structure. The key thing to watch is whether it can hold the 4320 level. If it can’t break down and hold above, we can still look for a spike-and-fall scenario; if it successfully holds above, then we can expect further rebound potential.
Trading suggestion: Sell 4315–4330, place the stop-loss above 4340. Target 4230.
(Individual guidance for reference only—everything depends on real-time trading.)#XAU $XAU
