Key takeaway:
The Fed uses a unanimous rate hike to reshape anti-inflation expectations. In the short term, the market reprices the US dollar, Treasury yields, and gold, while continuing to look for structural clues around AI compute power and energy-related risks.
【Today’s Main Theme】
Main Line 1: The Fed’s rate hike is implemented and the dot plot turns hawkish. The market shifts from “whether to raise rates” to “how many more times.”
Main Line 2: The US dollar and yields on short-term Treasuries rise. Gold faces short-term pressure, and volatility in global risk assets increases.
Main Line 3: Oil prices are pulled between geopolitical risk and expectations of repaired Saudi pipelines. Energy inflation remains an important variable for central bank policy.
Main theme #4: AI infrastructure investment continues to expand, but constraints on data-center power costs, approvals, and regulation are starting to heat up.
Main theme #5: China A-share tech growth leads remain active; meanwhile, the valuation pressure from rising external interest rates must be monitored.
【US stocks】
The Fed raised rates by 25 bps, and all three major US stock indexes closed lower. The Dow fell 1.21%, the S&P 500 fell about 0.45%, the Nasdaq was basically flat and slipped 0.01%. On the day, Intel rose 4% and SpaceX rose 5%; Goldman Sachs and Boeing fell nearly 4%. Boeing’s decline widened due to pressure on delivery and cash-flow expectations.
The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.55%, iQiyi rose 8%, and Alibaba fell 2%. After the rate hike, consensus hawkish policy signals weighed on risk appetite, but AI and parts of the tech supply chain still show structural resilience.
【Macro】
The Fed unanimously approved a 25-bp rate hike, raising the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. The dot plot showed that 16 of 18 officials think there should be another rate hike this year, with the median policy-rate expectations at 4.1% at end-2026 and end-2027.
Waller said inflation is too high and has lasted too long, and financial conditions are not restrictive; this action is removing part of the looseness. He declined to provide forward guidance and emphasized economic resilience and employment nearing full employment. The US Dollar Index broke above 100, closing at 100.252 in New York trading late day. US 2-year Treasury yields rose to 4.712% at one point, the highest level since July 2024.
US large banks followed by raising their prime lending rate to 7%. Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority followed the Fed’s 25-bp hike, raising the benchmark rate to 4.25%. Minutes from the Bank of Canada warned that if high oil prices spread to other commodities and services, further rate hikes may be needed. The Brazil central bank cut rates by 25 bps to 13.75%.
【AI storage chain】
SK hynix responded to reports about negotiations with Intel on US memory-chip production, saying no specific plans have been determined yet. Apple is considering returning to the server market and has held talks with NVIDIA about using networking technologies.
The US House of Representatives passed its first data-center cost-related bill, requiring regulators to consider whether large power users bear the cost of new power-infrastructure build-outs. In Northern Virginia, plans are also to pause reviews of new data-center and substation applications in core areas, showing that AI compute expansion is facing constraints from power costs and local approval processes.
OpenAI launched AI tools for advertisers and is testing enterprise-sponsored chatbots; it also released six reports on improper behavior in model training or evaluation. Anthropic combined Claude’s collaboration and chat features into a single application. AWS said its next-generation Trainium AI chips will have clear differentiation.
【Technology sector】
The US House passed the first bill targeting the economic impact of data centers, making power-grid upgrade cost-sharing a new variable in AI data-center expansion. China Galaxy Securities believes the resonance between the build-out of compute networks and AI demand will boost fiber demand; tight supply and demand will drive sector optimism for fiber.
BYD said sodium-battery technology has been applied for globally and has laid out core patents of more than 230. The courier industry completed L4-level new-energy heavy-truck road testing in the Yangtze River Delta region for the first time. A robot leasing platform, Qingtian Leasing, disclosed that it can schedule more than 4,000 robots; its goal is cumulative revenue of 10 billion RMB for the platform over the next three years.
【Crude oil】
International oil prices fell significantly. WTI crude futures closed down 3.21% to $102.43/barrel; Brent crude futures closed down 2.69% to $105.83/barrel. During the day, WTI briefly fell below $97/barrel, and Brent fell to around $101.
Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore about half of its east-west pipeline capacity within days, and plans to bring capacity back to full load in about six weeks to ease concerns about supply disruptions. According to the US EIA, commercial crude inventories fell by 640,000 barrels that week, less than the expected decline. Gasoline inventories rose by 794,000 barrels, and refined oil inventories rose by 1.585 million barrels. The main night session of SC crude oil closed down 4.01% to 805 RMB/barrel.
【Precious metals】
After the Fed’s rate hike, spot gold briefly dropped by more than $50, then pulled back by more than $100 from the day’s high. It fell below $4,240/ounce intraday. A stronger dollar and rising yields on short-end US Treasuries weighed on gold. Looking ahead, gold prices rebounded somewhat near $4,280/ounce.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange’s gold T+D late session rose 0.04% to 932.33 RMB/gram; silver T+D fell 0.55% to 15,543 RMB/kg. Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.41%, and Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.04%. Holdings in the world’s largest gold ETF increased by 1.711 tonnes, while the largest silver ETF holdings decreased by 39.33 tonnes.
【Domestic leads】
On Sept. 16, A-shares rebounded with volume expansion, with tech stocks leading gains. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.71%, the Shenzhen Component rose 1.26%, the ChiNext rose 1.96%, and the STAR 50 rose 4.14%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.19%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.79%.
Financing balance across the two markets increased by 9.18 billion RMB to 259.9189 billion RMB. Domestic policy leads include the issuance of the “14th Five-Year Plan for Culture and Tourism Development” (’15–’25), and the State Grid issuing measures to optimize the electricity-business environment. CATL plans to respond soon to rumors that relevant automakers selected other battery suppliers.
In terms of things to watch, AI compute infrastructure, fiber optic modules, server and storage chains, power supporting facilities for data centers, robots, and sodium batteries remain key funding focus areas, but the rise in surrounding interest rates constrains high-valuation growth assets.
【Key schedule】
09:00 China Aug. Swift RMB share in global payments
14:00 Switzerland Aug. Trade balance
15:00 Ministry of Commerce holds a regular press briefing
17:00 Eurozone Aug. CPI YoY final; Eurozone Aug. CPI MoM final
19:00 Bank of England releases interest rate decision and meeting minutes
20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 12; US Aug. housing starts (total); US Aug. building permits (total); US Sep. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index
22:00 US Aug. Existing home sales index (MoM)
22:30 US EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending Sep. 11
【Risk warning】
Watch for the Fed’s rate-hike expectations swinging repeatedly; long-end US Treasury yields rising again; oil prices rebounding on renewed Middle East and shipping risks; tighter regulation on power costs for data centers; and drawdown risk for high-valuation tech assets as financial conditions tighten.
#财经晨报 #全球市场 #A股 #AI #Technology sector
For research and learning purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.