❗❗The first Fed rate hike in three years will not automatically kill the Bitcoin cycle. But a second hike in December will change the rules of the game. The September move has already been largely priced in. Markets expected a 25 basis point increase to 3.75%–4.00%, so the more important question is what happens next. This is where the Barclays forecast matters. If the Fed raises the rate again in December, 2026 will no longer look like a straightforward year of “easing conditions + ETF demand.” It will become a year when Bitcoin is trying to grow amid tightening financial conditions. August showed that $BTC can still grow in such an environment. #BTC added roughly 25% as expectations for September.