In the early hours of September 17 at 2:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%—4.00%. This was the first rate hike since July 2023. All 12 commissioners supported it unanimously (Decrypt). Before the announcement, the CME FedWatch priced the probability of a rate hike at 93%, compared with less than 50% a month earlier. After the news hit, BTC initially dropped to around $75,100, then rebounded back above 76,000; ZEC ignored the macro backdrop and surged more than 20% over 24 hours.
Decision and dot plot
BlockBeats cites CME data: In the October meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 50.2%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 49.8%; by December, the probability of holding steady drops to 11.3%, cumulative 25-basis-point hikes are 50.1%, and 50-basis-point hikes are 38.6%.
The latest dot plot shows 16 officials expect at least one more rate hike in 2026, with the median rate expectations for 2026 and 2027 both at 4.1%. There is still about 33 basis points of room for rate-futures pricing within the year; by next June, that would be an additional cumulative 75 basis points. Stepping it by 25 basis points each time implies three hikes.
What Huatai Securities is leaning toward is the more dovish side: the necessity of a rate hike in October is declining, and another hike in December is the baseline scenario (Odaily).
At the press conference, Waller said three things: the economy is strong, the labor market still has resilience, and inflation is too high and has persisted for too long. He said the FOMC is currently not confident that inflation is moving toward 2%; the main problem with the current economy is inflation.
This shift is also not easy for Waller personally. He was only confirmed this May, and Wednesday’s meeting was just his third time chairing. Meanwhile, before the decision, Trump, Vice President Vance, and Treasury Secretary Bessent all publicly urged rate cuts. Trump even threatened to suspend trade with surplus countries (Decrypt). In Senator Warren’s view to CNN, the Iran conflict and tariff policy have cornered this chairman; whatever the choice, ordinary families will feel pressure on credit-card and mortgage rates.
Market reaction right away
- Spot gold fell by about $100 at one point; the U.S. Dollar Index rose by about 40 points and broke above 100. The yield on 2-year Treasuries rose by about 10 bps, and the 10-year by about 5 bps (BlockBeats).
- The three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower: Dow -1.2%, S&P 500 -0.44%, Nasdaq -0.01% (BIT market, cited via BlockBeats).
- On the same day, Trump also posted on social media that U.S. interest rates should be cut to 1% or lower.
Macro data is the starting point of this shift: August PPI year-over-year was 5.4% (July was 4.8%); prices for goods rose 1.1% month-over-month, with more than three-quarters coming from energy. CPI year-over-year was 3.4%; month-over-month rose from 0.1% to 0.4%. Gasoline contributed about one-third; core CPI month-over-month rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. Oil prices returned above $100 due to the Iran conflict (Decrypt).
BTC: the 75,000 line
Before the decision, BTC was around $75,200. After the decision, it first surged to $75,900, then pulled back to $75,100, and subsequently reclaimed above $76,000.
Tuesday’s pressure came from both legislation and capital. The CLARITY bill failed to pass the procedural cloture vote in the Senate. The 13 U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $450.4 million on the day, the largest single-day outflow since June 24 ($469 million). Of these, FBTC outflow was $214.8 million, IBIT $161.7 million, GBTC $44.1 million, ARKB $17.4 million, and BITB $12.4 million (Farside data, cited via Cointelegraph).
Sentiment indicators cooled in sync: the Fear & Greed Index returned to 51; the previous day was 69 (Decrypt).
There are also signals on-chain and in order books: Wintermute transferred 2,550 BTC to Binance (about $193 million). At the same time, a whale bought 197.35 BTC at an average price of $76,007 (BlockBeats).
Legislation is another track: after the CLARITY bill was dealt a setback in the Senate for less than 24 hours, a House committee advanced the crypto tax reform bill (BlockBeats).
Binance snapshot (Beijing time, September 17 08:30): BTC $76,436, up +0.77% over 24 hours; range $75,064.82—$76,560.76. ETH $2,424, +0.79%. BTC perpetual funding rate 0.01% per 8 hours; open interest 108,132 BTC.
The support band analysts gave is $73,500—$75,600. The daily candles closed below it; outlook is lower to $71,000. Some technical models also point to $66,900 (Decrypt).
ZEC: an independent move powered by governance voting
After the results of Zcash coin-holder voting were released, ZEC moved on a curve unrelated to the broader market. In the NU7 poll, 99.9% of ZEC weighted votes supported shortening the block production target time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds; 98.9% supported keeping the current halving schedule; and about 97% supported deferring the re-issuance of the Network Sustainable Mechanism (NSM) to February 2031 (Cointelegraph).
Note on referencing: When Cointelegraph cites CoinMarketCap data, it states the past 24 hours is +3.8% and the past month is +132%. Binance spot snapshots show a 24-hour gain of +20.4% ($1,101.93 to $1,341.20, with a high of $1,385.65). The snapshots are taken at different times, so when tracking price action, follow the numbers from your own trading platform.
Options perspective
Binance European-style options data (September 17 08:35):
- Options call for 76,000 expiring on September 25, IV 33.6%, premium $1,803
- Options put for 72,000 expiring on September 25, IV 37.0%, premium $291
- Options call for 80,000 expiring on October 30 (IV 34.7%); options put for 70,000 (IV 37.7%), premium $1,302
- 80,000 call options expiring on December 25, IV 37.4%
Put options are more expensive than call options, and the market is willing to pay for downside. The October 30 expiration, which covers the FOMC period from October 27–28, is the most crucial contract on this line.
Risk warning
- The October decision is driven by two sets of data: September CPI, PPI, and employment. Any upside surprise would push the rate-hike probability back above 60%.
- The Iran conflict keeps pushing oil prices above $100; a second upward move in the energy component could extend the tightening cycle.
- Legislative progress keeps stalling: the procedural vote for the CLARITY bill is blocked, tax reform is still in committee, and the headline narrative can flip at any time.
- Spot ETFs are the main incremental buyers in this round; persistent net outflows could magnify the pullback.
- Perpetual funding rates are still stuck in positive territory; watch changes in long crowding.
Trading thesis (personal view, conditional)
1. Bullish conditions: the daily close holds above 76,600; if it pulls back to 75,000—75,600 without breaking, targets are 78,000 and 79,600 (the September 14 high); stop-loss is 74,900 (invalid if it breaks below the September 15 low of 74,968).
2. Bearish conditions: the daily close falls below 73,500; target 71,000, then further to 66,900; stop-loss 76,600.
3. Options: If you judge that there will be no action in October, you can use the September 25 72,000/66,000 put spread to sell the premium. If you’re worried about another hike in October, the 70,000 put expiring on October 30 directly provides protection over the meeting; premium is about $1,302.
4. Preconditions for the above thesis to become invalid: the October rate-hike probability based on CME conventions rises above 60%, or spot ETFs have total net outflows exceeding $500 million across three consecutive days.
The next exam is on October 27–28; the dot plot update will have to wait until December 8–9.
What do you think about this October meeting—hold rates steady, or hike again?
The above content does not constitute investment advice