The Fed resumes rate hikes after three years; hawkish signals land, and pressure returns to crypto markets
On September 17, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting decided to raise rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate up to 3.75%–4%. This marks the Fed’s first rate hike in three years since July 2023.
The dot plot shows that 16 officials generally expect at least one more rate hike within 2026, with the median interest-rate expectations for 2026 and 2027 staying at 4.1%. This hawkish-leaning outlook, compared with the market’s prior expectations, further tightens expectations for liquidity conditions.
After the meeting, Fed Chair Waller said that the U.S. economy’s fundamentals remain strong and the job market is resilient, but inflation is still high and has persisted for too long. He said the committee currently cannot confirm that inflation is steadily moving back toward the 2% target. He also pointed out that the biggest issue in the current economy is not weak growth, but inflation.
Regarding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, Waller summarized three key drivers: strong U.S. economic resilience, intensified competition for market capital, and geopolitical developments creating disruptions. While he did not directly mention conflicts in the Middle East, he had previously said that shifting geopolitical dynamics would force the Fed to reassess its economic outlook.
With the news now in place, global risk assets face a fresh test, and crypto markets are the first to feel the pressure. Crypto assets are high-risk instruments, and their prices are extremely sensitive to changes in U.S. dollar liquidity. Rate hikes imply higher dollar funding costs and increased appeal of risk-free assets, prompting capital to move away from high-risk markets such as crypto. Bitcoin and major coins are likely to face near-term pressure, while smaller altcoins may see even larger price swings. Combined with the additional rate-hike expectations implied by the dot plot, the market will start repricing a longer-term environment of tighter liquidity, and near-term rebound rallies are likely to be suppressed.
Many people had expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged. With this rate hike landing alongside a hawkish tone, it has shattered the market’s more optimistic prior hopes. Even though some parts of this hike may have been priced in early, expectations that there could be “another hike later this year” will continue to weigh on the valuation of risk assets.
For participants in the crypto market, it’s crucial not to blindly buy the dip. In a liquidity-tightening cycle, market fluctuations will become significantly more pronounced. Prioritize managing your position size, stay patient while monitoring subsequent fund flows and price action, and avoid taking heavy bets on short-term moves.
#美联储加息是否已成定局 $NVDAB
On September 17, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting decided to raise rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate up to 3.75%–4%. This marks the Fed’s first rate hike in three years since July 2023.
The dot plot shows that 16 officials generally expect at least one more rate hike within 2026, with the median interest-rate expectations for 2026 and 2027 staying at 4.1%. This hawkish-leaning outlook, compared with the market’s prior expectations, further tightens expectations for liquidity conditions.
After the meeting, Fed Chair Waller said that the U.S. economy’s fundamentals remain strong and the job market is resilient, but inflation is still high and has persisted for too long. He said the committee currently cannot confirm that inflation is steadily moving back toward the 2% target. He also pointed out that the biggest issue in the current economy is not weak growth, but inflation.
Regarding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, Waller summarized three key drivers: strong U.S. economic resilience, intensified competition for market capital, and geopolitical developments creating disruptions. While he did not directly mention conflicts in the Middle East, he had previously said that shifting geopolitical dynamics would force the Fed to reassess its economic outlook.
With the news now in place, global risk assets face a fresh test, and crypto markets are the first to feel the pressure. Crypto assets are high-risk instruments, and their prices are extremely sensitive to changes in U.S. dollar liquidity. Rate hikes imply higher dollar funding costs and increased appeal of risk-free assets, prompting capital to move away from high-risk markets such as crypto. Bitcoin and major coins are likely to face near-term pressure, while smaller altcoins may see even larger price swings. Combined with the additional rate-hike expectations implied by the dot plot, the market will start repricing a longer-term environment of tighter liquidity, and near-term rebound rallies are likely to be suppressed.
Many people had expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged. With this rate hike landing alongside a hawkish tone, it has shattered the market’s more optimistic prior hopes. Even though some parts of this hike may have been priced in early, expectations that there could be “another hike later this year” will continue to weigh on the valuation of risk assets.
For participants in the crypto market, it’s crucial not to blindly buy the dip. In a liquidity-tightening cycle, market fluctuations will become significantly more pronounced. Prioritize managing your position size, stay patient while monitoring subsequent fund flows and price action, and avoid taking heavy bets on short-term moves.
#美联储加息是否已成定局 $NVDAB
