On the early morning of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike. The target range for the federal funds rate was raised from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate hike since 2023. The FOMC vote was 12–0.
But what’s really worth watching isn’t these 25 bps.
The dot plot is the main event.
The latest projections show that among 18 officials, 16 are expected to hike rates again in 2026. At the same time, the Fed projects that 2026 PCE inflation will be about 3.7%, well above the 2% target. The expected GDP growth rate is 2.3%, and the unemployment rate is expected to be around 4.1%.
So what the market is facing now isn’t:
“25 bps hike—bad news is over.”
It’s:
“After this one, will they keep hiking?”
In addition, Waller didn’t provide a very clear forward path for rates. He emphasized that policy will be determined based on real-time economic data. This means that going forward, inflation, employment, oil prices, and U.S. Treasury yields will all once again become the key factors in market pricing #美联储加息是否已成定局 $BTC
But what’s really worth watching isn’t these 25 bps.
The dot plot is the main event.
The latest projections show that among 18 officials, 16 are expected to hike rates again in 2026. At the same time, the Fed projects that 2026 PCE inflation will be about 3.7%, well above the 2% target. The expected GDP growth rate is 2.3%, and the unemployment rate is expected to be around 4.1%.
So what the market is facing now isn’t:
“25 bps hike—bad news is over.”
It’s:
“After this one, will they keep hiking?”
In addition, Waller didn’t provide a very clear forward path for rates. He emphasized that policy will be determined based on real-time economic data. This means that going forward, inflation, employment, oil prices, and U.S. Treasury yields will all once again become the key factors in market pricing #美联储加息是否已成定局 $BTC
