The Fed’s decision was already implemented in the early hours of the morning. The overall market action followed the remarks and the dot plot entirely. There was no surprise in the rate hike itself.
At the moment, BTC is trading sideways around 76,000. Right after the decision was released, the market briefly spiked, reaching 76,500, but then a “wipe” from one of the remarks sent the price back down to the low around 75,000. After that, it slowly returned to the trading range. ETH is moving in tandem as well, currently stabilizing around 2,400. For the week overall, the pullback is about 4%. In plain terms: the rate hike was within expectations—the real volatility all came from post-meeting comments.
Summary of the decision:
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points as expected this time, with the target range adjusted to 3.75%–4.00%. This is the first rate hike since July 2023. After five pauses in rate hikes, the Fed officially restarted tightening. This decision was passed unanimously at 12:0, and its stance was more consistently hawkish than in July.
The most critical thing this time—beyond market expectations—isn’t the rate hike, it’s the dot plot turning broadly hawkish.
Among the 18 voting officials, as many as 16 believe that the Fed should continue to raise rates this year. Of those, 12 expect a cumulative 50-basis-point hike within the year, while 4 see 75 basis points. Compared with the June data—back then, many still anticipated a pause—now everyone has abandoned the expectation of easing. At the same time, the terminal rate expectations for 2026 and 2027 have all been revised upward to 4.1%. In simple terms: the Fed has given up on a “wait-and-watch at high rates” approach and instead will stay persistently tight and maintain high interest rates for the long term after rate hikes.
Woz’s comments right after the meeting were very clear:
The biggest problem in the market right now isn’t weak economic growth—it’s inflation. Inflation is not only high, but it has lasted far too long. Since summer, none of the data has shown any trend toward inflation falling. Even though the outside world, including Trump, has been calling for rate cuts, the Fed has sent no signals of easing at all and has maintained a tough stance against inflation throughout.
Support from the macro fundamentals—especially inflation—hasn’t disappeared either:
The earlier oil supply issues are still unresolved. Problems such as Saudi Yanbu port ships not being loaded/unloaded and limited pipeline transport capacity haven’t improved, and an energy premium continues to exist—this is also an important reason why the Fed keeps raising rates. The market’s feedback is very straightforward: after the gold decision, it quickly dumped; Treasuries fell first then rebounded; stocks overall didn’t completely collapse, but the tightening expectations have been fully priced in.
Back to the crypto market price action:
Last night, the 75,000 level was quickly probed once, and the effectiveness of near-term support has weakened. Now 76,000 is a typical long/short switching point. The heavy pressure zone above at 78,000–80,000 is still firmly locking in the market’s direction.
The rate-hike round has already been priced in ahead of time. Next, the market’s focus will be whether another hike will happen again in December. Also, there’s no positive support from the regulatory side: the related program voting for CLARITY hasn’t passed, so the overall environment is rather flat.
Here’s the straightforward way to approach trading:
Don’t chase the rebound blindly now. The fact that the decision has been implemented doesn’t mean the downside is fully over— the dot plot has completely locked in the expectation of further rate hikes during the year.
The fluctuations in the Asian session during the day aren’t very meaningful. It will most likely be a sideways consolidation and repair. Wait until the Asian session has had enough turnover, then adjust your position based on the strength or weakness of the price action—don’t go heavy too early to bet on a move.
⚠️ Personal recap of the order book/price action only; not investment advice
