FOMC Decision Day: The first rate hike in three years is delivered, crypto steadies against the macro headwind $BTC #BTC
🔥 FOMC delivered: +25bp to 3.75–4.00% (first time since 2023/7, passed unanimously). The dot plot shows one more hike this year, 16/18 officials support additional hikes, and no action in 2027—clearly more hawkish than June; the SEP raised inflation and GDP projections and lowered the unemployment rate. The Waters 기자会/press conference was hawkish. Immediate reaction: gold price plunges by $50–70, DXY jumps by 50 points, and the 2Y yield rises.
📊 Morning market (top-down)
💰 BTC $75,724 (-0.95%)—mildly bearish and tangled; MACD flat-to-bearish, RSI48. 4H: bearish setup, RSI37, near oversold
💰 ETH $2,393 (-1.15%)—the weakest; 4H RSI35, near oversold
💰 SOL $97.09 (-2.16%)—lost $100; 4H bearish setup
🧭 All three coins on the daily are "mildly bearish and tangled." On the 4H, most are bearish and RSI is probing 35–37 (oversold). Bear momentum dominates, but there is risk of a short-term rebound as smaller timeframes near oversold.
📉 Derivatives
🟢 Funding rate (8h) is gently positive with no extreme values (shorting still collects)
💥 24h liquidations: BTC $144M longs $111M vs shorts $33M (3.3:1 liquidation ratio favoring longs)
🔴 Spot premium -0.08% (a discount; institutions tend to sell) ｜ Fear & Greed 52 (cooled quickly from 68 vs yesterday)
📉 After the rate hike is delivered (12:11 PT)
🟢 BTC $76,003 holds steady rather than falling—short-term bearishness is exhausted; ETH $2,412 / SOL $98.5 both stabilize
🔴 Crypto-chain stocks plunge again: CRCL -9.6% / COIN -5.9% / MSTR -4.2%; AI hardware/power trend stronger against the move
🎯 Outlook
🟡 "Buy the expectation, sell the fact" for the rate hike has already been digested. However, the unanimous passage plus a hawkish dot plot still implies further tightening—10Y approaching 5% and a strong DXY remains a headwind.
🟢 BTC steadies against the macro—good near-term resilience—but don’t chase with the first K candle (see the 9/11 CPI playbook), and don’t rule out a second round of selloff.
⚠️ Wait to see whether the 4H close breaks down or holds firmly after the FOMC before making a stronger call; SOL is the weakest and could be the first choice for shorts.
⚠️ Follow-up risks: Thursday—Bank of England; Friday—Bank of Japan; the "super central bank" week isn’t over yet. Risk of a second spike in Middle East oil prices.
🔥 FOMC delivered: +25bp to 3.75–4.00% (first time since 2023/7, passed unanimously). The dot plot shows one more hike this year, 16/18 officials support additional hikes, and no action in 2027—clearly more hawkish than June; the SEP raised inflation and GDP projections and lowered the unemployment rate. The Waters 기자会/press conference was hawkish. Immediate reaction: gold price plunges by $50–70, DXY jumps by 50 points, and the 2Y yield rises.
📊 Morning market (top-down)
💰 BTC $75,724 (-0.95%)—mildly bearish and tangled; MACD flat-to-bearish, RSI48. 4H: bearish setup, RSI37, near oversold
💰 ETH $2,393 (-1.15%)—the weakest; 4H RSI35, near oversold
💰 SOL $97.09 (-2.16%)—lost $100; 4H bearish setup
🧭 All three coins on the daily are "mildly bearish and tangled." On the 4H, most are bearish and RSI is probing 35–37 (oversold). Bear momentum dominates, but there is risk of a short-term rebound as smaller timeframes near oversold.
📉 Derivatives
🟢 Funding rate (8h) is gently positive with no extreme values (shorting still collects)
💥 24h liquidations: BTC $144M longs $111M vs shorts $33M (3.3:1 liquidation ratio favoring longs)
🔴 Spot premium -0.08% (a discount; institutions tend to sell) ｜ Fear & Greed 52 (cooled quickly from 68 vs yesterday)
📉 After the rate hike is delivered (12:11 PT)
🟢 BTC $76,003 holds steady rather than falling—short-term bearishness is exhausted; ETH $2,412 / SOL $98.5 both stabilize
🔴 Crypto-chain stocks plunge again: CRCL -9.6% / COIN -5.9% / MSTR -4.2%; AI hardware/power trend stronger against the move
🎯 Outlook
🟡 "Buy the expectation, sell the fact" for the rate hike has already been digested. However, the unanimous passage plus a hawkish dot plot still implies further tightening—10Y approaching 5% and a strong DXY remains a headwind.
🟢 BTC steadies against the macro—good near-term resilience—but don’t chase with the first K candle (see the 9/11 CPI playbook), and don’t rule out a second round of selloff.
⚠️ Wait to see whether the 4H close breaks down or holds firmly after the FOMC before making a stronger call; SOL is the weakest and could be the first choice for shorts.
⚠️ Follow-up risks: Thursday—Bank of England; Friday—Bank of Japan; the "super central bank" week isn’t over yet. Risk of a second spike in Middle East oil prices.