My current stance on ZEC is to wait and see. I acknowledge that the direction is still strong, but I’m not chasing this bounce. Two hours ago, when it surged to 1355, I said it was overheating across multiple cycles—first think about retreating, then think about entering. Later, the price briefly pushed to around 1278 within about an hour, then quickly pulled back above 1320. This has already shattered the fantasy that “when it’s strong, you can blindly chase.” It also confirms that not chasing the high back then was the right call; but it also didn’t keep collapsing all the way down, and the shorts didn’t get comfortable downside room either.

OKX perpetuals are currently around 1321.7, with a 24-hour increase of about 18.2%. The 15-minute RSI is about 61.8, the 1-hour about 70.1, and the 4-hour about 73.6. The short-term has retreated from its hottest level, but the 1-hour and 4-hour are still overheated, so I’m not calling this rebound a fresh starting point. The funding rate is about -0.0145%. The structure where shorts pay has returned, which could add fuel to the rebound—or it could just be a temporary inversion within high volatility. Based on the funding rate alone, you can’t use it to confirm the price action.

The external environment also doesn’t support being too certain about a single candlestick. The Fed has just announced a 25-basis-point rate hike, and its statement still emphasizes that inflation is too high. ZEC itself has high volatility, and macro news could also cause risk appetite to keep swinging—so I’d rather focus on how price handles the range from 1308 to 1330 than guess whether the next candle will suddenly shoot up. On the upside, first look at 1350 to 1355; above that, it’s the recent 5-hour high at 1398.99. On the downside, first watch 1308 and 1290; after it breaks below, then look at 1278.

If I were trading on my own, I would be in cash right now. Only if price pulls back into 1308 to 1320 and can hold, and then the 15-minute candle reclaims 1330 with volume not clearly dropping off, would I use about 3% of my capital to try a long. Near 1350, I would cut half, and the rest would depend on whether it can push toward 1390 to 1399. If it breaks below 1290, I’d close directly—no using a “long-term bullish” excuse to justify tolerating a short-term stop-loss. Conversely, if 1308 is broken down, and the retest can’t get back above 1308, I’d first stop the idea of going long. At most, I’d use 3% of capital to try a short toward 1278, then reassess at 1234. If it reclaims 1325, I’d exit the short idea. If it keeps chopping back and forth between 1308 and 1330, I’d do nothing.

Honestly, this kind of chart—sharp drawdown followed by a rebound—is very tempting. I’d rather miss a move than enter blindly; I prefer to spell out the conditions for entry, scaling down, and admitting mistakes all at once. Last round’s “don’t chase” protected me—this round can’t become complacent just because it worked once.

The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.

$ZEC