As market expectations suggest, this FOMC hike increased rates by 25 basis points.
But what’s truly worth noting isn’t the hike itself—it’s the confirmation signals the rates market is sending: the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped quickly from about 4.60% before the FOMC to 4.72%, while also breaking above the recent highs. In other words, the market is重新定价 a “higher-for-longer” rate path.
This change is clearly bearish for risk assets. During the session, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 fell rapidly by around 1.5%–1.6% at one point.
But BTC’s performance has held up relatively well. It is still staying above the key support zone near the 4-hour 200-period moving average and around $75,000.
My most ideal trading scenario right now is:
• BTC first makes a fake breakdown below $75,000
• It then sweeps down toward liquidity around $74,500
• After that, it quickly reclaims $75,000, forming a potential double bottom
• Once confirmed, look for a long opportunity, with targets toward $83,000
Stop-loss can be slightly widened to a level where the overall structure is invalid, to avoid getting stopped out by short-term wicks. However, I won’t try to guess the bottom in advance. Only when there is a fake breakdown and the price then reclaims the key support will it count as a true confirmation signal.
At present, both the daily and 12-hour RSI are already approaching relatively low levels, so the room for further downside is narrowing. But RSI entering low territory doesn’t mean the price will immediately reverse. Therefore, what matters most now isn’t chasing trades—it’s waiting patiently for price to deliver the opportunity.
My plan to slowly build longs with a small position has already been laid out. I’m just waiting for the trigger. $BTC $ETH #比特币下跌4%
But what’s truly worth noting isn’t the hike itself—it’s the confirmation signals the rates market is sending: the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped quickly from about 4.60% before the FOMC to 4.72%, while also breaking above the recent highs. In other words, the market is重新定价 a “higher-for-longer” rate path.
This change is clearly bearish for risk assets. During the session, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 fell rapidly by around 1.5%–1.6% at one point.
But BTC’s performance has held up relatively well. It is still staying above the key support zone near the 4-hour 200-period moving average and around $75,000.
My most ideal trading scenario right now is:
• BTC first makes a fake breakdown below $75,000
• It then sweeps down toward liquidity around $74,500
• After that, it quickly reclaims $75,000, forming a potential double bottom
• Once confirmed, look for a long opportunity, with targets toward $83,000
Stop-loss can be slightly widened to a level where the overall structure is invalid, to avoid getting stopped out by short-term wicks. However, I won’t try to guess the bottom in advance. Only when there is a fake breakdown and the price then reclaims the key support will it count as a true confirmation signal.
At present, both the daily and 12-hour RSI are already approaching relatively low levels, so the room for further downside is narrowing. But RSI entering low territory doesn’t mean the price will immediately reverse. Therefore, what matters most now isn’t chasing trades—it’s waiting patiently for price to deliver the opportunity.
My plan to slowly build longs with a small position has already been laid out. I’m just waiting for the trigger. $BTC $ETH #比特币下跌4%
