The die is already cast—still struggling? This time, the Federal Reserve decision raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate up to 3.75%-4.00%. The dot plot was hawkish, leaving open the possibility of further hikes within the year.

Waller emphasized that current inflation remains too high and that there is insufficient evidence for it to retreat to the 2% target. Combating inflation is still the top priority, and the Fed still has more work to do. He declined to provide a fixed forward-looking guidance; subsequent policy decisions will be based entirely on inflation and economic data. There will be no prior commitment to rate hikes or to pausing them. He also noted that the U.S. economy is relatively resilient, employment is stable, and the current degree of financial tightening is not enough. Upside inflation risks remain, so monetary policy will not be loosened prematurely.

Overall, the entire speech leaned hawkish and did not release any dovish signals. After the news was released, downside risk hit risk assets: the big coin faced additional downward pressure, which also confirms our earlier expectation for being positioned short at elevated levels.
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