After watching the Fed’s press conference, the overall tone is still hawkish.
A few key data points:
Interest rate: 3.75%–4.00%, with a 25 bp hike
Dot plot: 16 officials expect that at least one more rate increase will be needed between 2026 and beyond
Rate median at end-2026: 4.1%
Rate median at end-2027: 4.1%
Powell’s remarks were also very direct: inflation is too high, and it has persisted for too long. We cannot yet confirm that inflation is returning to 2%.
The market reaction was also very candid:
Gold fell by about $100 at one point, the dollar broke above 100, U.S. Treasury yields on the 2-year rose by about 10 bp, and U.S. stocks turned lower across the board.
More importantly, rate futures are already starting to price this in:
There could be another ~33 bp of hikes this year, with a cumulative ~75 bp of hikes by next June.
So the biggest change tonight isn’t really the 25 bp—it’s that the market is beginning to accept this:
This may not be a one-off rate hike.
Next, I’ll keep an eye on the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. As long as they don’t come down, BTC’s short-term pressure will still be there. $BTC
A few key data points:
Interest rate: 3.75%–4.00%, with a 25 bp hike
Dot plot: 16 officials expect that at least one more rate increase will be needed between 2026 and beyond
Rate median at end-2026: 4.1%
Rate median at end-2027: 4.1%
Powell’s remarks were also very direct: inflation is too high, and it has persisted for too long. We cannot yet confirm that inflation is returning to 2%.
The market reaction was also very candid:
Gold fell by about $100 at one point, the dollar broke above 100, U.S. Treasury yields on the 2-year rose by about 10 bp, and U.S. stocks turned lower across the board.
More importantly, rate futures are already starting to price this in:
There could be another ~33 bp of hikes this year, with a cumulative ~75 bp of hikes by next June.
So the biggest change tonight isn’t really the 25 bp—it’s that the market is beginning to accept this:
This may not be a one-off rate hike.
Next, I’ll keep an eye on the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. As long as they don’t come down, BTC’s short-term pressure will still be there. $BTC