The Fed raises rates, what’s next for Bitcoin and Ethereum?
In the early hours of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike, i.e., 0.25 percentage points, raising the target range to 3.75%—4.00%.
This rate hike itself aligns with the market’s mainstream expectations. What’s truly worth paying attention to is what comes next: the latest rate projections indicate there will be one more hike this year, and there’s no clear signal of a shift toward rate cuts next year. Of course, these are the officials’ current projections—not policy that’s already set in stone.
For crypto markets, where does the pressure lie? Borrowing costs are higher, and they may stay elevated for longer. If you’re waiting for rate cuts to bring expectations of looser liquidity, you’ll need to readjust.
But a “rate hike being implemented” also can’t be directly translated into “a crash right away.” The market already priced in the hike expectations in advance. If subsequent guidance isn’t more hawkish than expected, you could still see downside news get fully priced and a rebound driven by short-covering.
Personally, I remain cautious. Going forward, I’ll focus on three areas:
First, whether the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury continues to rise, to judge whether the market is adding further bets on additional hikes.
Second, whether the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, to see if external pressure is increasing.
Third, whether Bitcoin and Ethereum can hold their ground after the rebound—whether there’s sustained spot-driven buying to back it up.
If yields and the dollar keep moving higher, and crypto prices can’t hold the rebound, I’ll be even more on alert. If external pressure eases, and after a breakout the price pulls back and holds support, then you should also update your view in a timely manner.
Being bearish needs evidence, and rebounds also need follow-through. Don’t treat the two words “rate hike” as an automatic signal to short.
#美联储加息 #加密
In the early hours of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike, i.e., 0.25 percentage points, raising the target range to 3.75%—4.00%.
This rate hike itself aligns with the market’s mainstream expectations. What’s truly worth paying attention to is what comes next: the latest rate projections indicate there will be one more hike this year, and there’s no clear signal of a shift toward rate cuts next year. Of course, these are the officials’ current projections—not policy that’s already set in stone.
For crypto markets, where does the pressure lie? Borrowing costs are higher, and they may stay elevated for longer. If you’re waiting for rate cuts to bring expectations of looser liquidity, you’ll need to readjust.
But a “rate hike being implemented” also can’t be directly translated into “a crash right away.” The market already priced in the hike expectations in advance. If subsequent guidance isn’t more hawkish than expected, you could still see downside news get fully priced and a rebound driven by short-covering.
Personally, I remain cautious. Going forward, I’ll focus on three areas:
First, whether the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury continues to rise, to judge whether the market is adding further bets on additional hikes.
Second, whether the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, to see if external pressure is increasing.
Third, whether Bitcoin and Ethereum can hold their ground after the rebound—whether there’s sustained spot-driven buying to back it up.
If yields and the dollar keep moving higher, and crypto prices can’t hold the rebound, I’ll be even more on alert. If external pressure eases, and after a breakout the price pulls back and holds support, then you should also update your view in a timely manner.
Being bearish needs evidence, and rebounds also need follow-through. Don’t treat the two words “rate hike” as an automatic signal to short.
#美联储加息 #加密
