Everyone was expecting blood. We got a fart.😅
Today the Fed raised the rate by 25 bps. First time in three years. The rate is now 3.75–4.00%. And instead of a crash, $BTC is trading -0.4%, Nasdaq is +0.8%, and the 10-year treasury fell.
How does that happen? I’ll explain.
What the dot plot showed and why it matters
The dot plot is simply an FOMC members’ vote on where they see the rate going in the future. Something like a “weather forecast” from the people who directly run monetary policy.
Today’s dot plot showed:
16 out of 18 members expect another hawk this year
Median rate end of 2026: 4.1%, meaning another +25 bps ahead
For 2027: 8 for a hawk, 6 for a pause, 4 for a cut
It sounds tough. But then Waller came out for the press conference and said, word for word: “I won’t be pre-determining future decisions.”
It was one phrase that changed everything. The market heard: maybe one hawk—and that’s it. That’s why stocks are up and there’s no panic in crypto.
How the market reacted — the numbers right now
Stocks: S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.8%
Bonds: the 10-year treasury fell by 5 bps to 4.947%, and that means big money doesn’t believe in a long cycle of rate hikes
$BTC: ~$75,634, -0.4% — barely moved
$ETH: ~$2,396, -0.2% — holds
$XRP: ~$1.28, -3.5% — took the most hit
$SOL: ~$97.74, -0.4%
Gold: after months of pressure from hawkish expectations—and now treasuries falling—gold could bounce back. Before the July decision, XAU/USD was falling to $4,000, and after the “hold” it bounced above $4,100. A similar mechanism could work again right now if Waller truly stops at one hawk.
Two scenarios for what happens next
A hawk was priced in at 91%. The surprise wasn’t in the decision, but in the tone.
If the October CPI comes in soft: The market will start pricing in a pause in November. $BTC could return to $80K+. ETF inflows will support it because last week there were $987 million in net inflows.
If inflation surprises to the upside again: the November hawk becomes the baseline. Then $BTC will be testing $72–74K. That’s the main risk for the next 6 weeks.
My position after the decision
Short closed. Now it’s neutral.
$76,000 is the main support level I’m watching. If $BTC holds there for 48 hours without breaking down, then I’ll consider a long toward $79K.
Next, what I’m looking at: PCE inflation at the end of September and speeches from FOMC members over the following weeks. They will either confirm the pause or scare the market again.
This is not financial advice. Do your own analysis.