The leading banks—Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, among others—forecast a 25-basis-point increase in the Federal Reserve rate at the September 15-16 meeting, which would raise the federal funds rate range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. This would be the first hike since July 2023.
The consensus shift came after August inflation data came in higher than expected and oil prices rose to above $100 a barrel. Markets are pricing in an 87-94% chance of the increase, according to the CME FedWatch and Bloomberg.
Banks such as UBS and Banorte go further and anticipate two rate hikes before year-end (September and December), setting the rate at 4.00%-4.25%. Citi expects the increase to be presented as a “recalibration” rather than the start of a full tightening cycle.
The announcement will be released on Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 p.m. (Eastern Time), followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. #JPMorgan $JPM
The consensus shift came after August inflation data came in higher than expected and oil prices rose to above $100 a barrel. Markets are pricing in an 87-94% chance of the increase, according to the CME FedWatch and Bloomberg.
Banks such as UBS and Banorte go further and anticipate two rate hikes before year-end (September and December), setting the rate at 4.00%-4.25%. Citi expects the increase to be presented as a “recalibration” rather than the start of a full tightening cycle.
The announcement will be released on Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 p.m. (Eastern Time), followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. #JPMorgan $JPM