Rate hikes are already in place, and BTC hasn’t seen a major drop. At 2:30, there’s another speech from the Fed Chair. This time, the hike is 25 basis points. Previously, the probability reflected in CME interest rate futures had already risen to above 87%. In other words, the market had priced in the rate hike long ago.

In the period leading up to the FOMC meeting, BTC had already pulled back from its highs, dropping as low as 74,900—effectively digesting the bearish impact from the rate hike in advance.

When the official decision is announced, it simply confirms what the market had already anticipated. Since it has already fallen once beforehand, there naturally won’t be a second wave of sell-off on the night of the announcement—what people commonly call “the bad news has been exhausted.” #美联储加息是否已成定局